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The Las Vegas Aces (5-5) and Phoenix Mercury (6-6) meet Thursday in a Commissioner’s Cup game at Footprint Center in Phoenix. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Aces vs. Mercury odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Aces suffered a 100-86 loss at home to the Minnesota Lynx as a 7-point favorite Tuesday. It was the 3rd straight setback for Las Vegas, who has dropped 3 in a row for the first time since 2019.
The Aces have allowed 98.0 PPG in the past 2 games, the most points allowed in consecutive games by Las Vegas since allowing 108.5 PPG in a home-and-home with the New York Liberty July 6-12, 2022.
The Mercury posted a 97-90 win in overtime on the road against the Dallas Wings Sunday. Phoenix has won and covered consecutive games for the first time since a 3-game win streak from May 18-23, which included a 98-88 road win against the Aces on May 21 as a 13.5-point underdog.
Phoenix has won just the one game May 21 in the past 10 tries against Las Vegas. However, the Mercury have covered 3 in a row in the series since Sept. 10, and the Over is 6-1 in the previous 7 meetings.
Aces at Mercury odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Aces -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Mercury +198 (bet $100 to win $198)
- Against the spread: Aces -5.5 (-110) | Mercury +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 170 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Aces at Mercury picks and predictions
Prediction
Mercury 93, Aces 89
Moneyline
PHOENIX (+198) is a tremendous value at home, as you can nearly double up with a win by the home side.
Las Vegas (-250) is struggling badly, especially at the defensive end, and facing a Mercury team that dropped 98 on it earlier in the season at Mandalay Bay won’t help matters.
Against the spread
PHOENIX +5.5 (-110) is worth playing if you still can’t bring yourself to bet against Las Vegas -5.5 (-110) despite its recent woes.
The Merc have covered 3 of the past 4 outings, while going a respectable 3-2 ATS in 5 games at the Footprint Center this season, including covers in the past 2.
The Aces are not only losing outright, but as you’d imagine, they’re not covering, either. Las Vegas is 0-3 ATS in the 3-game losing skid, and just 3-7 ATS on the season.
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Over/Under
OVER 170 (-108) is a solid play until the Aces can prove they’re past their defensive woes.
The Over has hit in back-to-back games, with Las Vegas going for 89.0 PPG, while allowing 98.0 PPG. The offense is good for 86 or more points on 7 of 10 occasions.
The Mercury hit the Over last time out in an OT road win in Dallas, and they cashed high in the most recent meeting with Las Vegas May 21.
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