2024 U.S. Open prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

North Carolina will be the center of the golf world this week with Pinehurst No. 2 hosting the 2024 U.S. Open. Scottie Scheffler is seeking his 2nd major championship of the year after winning the Masters in April, while Xander Schauffele is looking for a 2nd consecutive major win following his PGA Championship win in May. The 1st round begins on Thursday morning from Pinehurst.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets from BetMGM Sportsbook among the 2024 U.S. Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite at +333, with Schauffele holding the 2nd-best odds at +1100. Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Collin Morikawa (+1400) are the only other players with odds shorter than +2000. Martin Kaymer won the U.S. Open at Pinehurst in 2014 and he comes into the week at +20000, while last year’s champion, Wyndham Clark, is +6600 to defend his title.

Pinehurst No. 2 is a par 70 and has a listed yardage of 7,543 yards, but it will play shorter than that due to the fast, firm conditions – particularly with the lack of rain in the forecast this week. There’s no traditional rough like there typically is at a U.S. Open, and there will instead be native areas and waste bunkers that will penalize players for missing fairways.

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

124th U.S. Open – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:58 a.m. ET.

Bryson DeChambeau (+400)

DeChambeau is unquestionably one of the best golfers on the planet right now and his odds would be much shorter this week if he were playing regularly on the PGA Tour. He finished 6th at the Masters after shooting 2-over in the final round and he came in 2nd at the PGA Championship, 1 shot behind Schauffele.

Brooks Koepka (+450)

Koepka finished 45th at the Masters and 26th at the PGA, 2 disappointing results for the 5-time major champion. You can bet he’s motivated to rebound at the U.S. Open, a tournament he’s won twice before, and Pinehurst sets up well with what are expected to be brutal course conditions.

Collin Morikawa (+300)

Pinehurst seems long based on its yardage but the layout could also take driver out of the bag for some longer hitters, thus leveling the playing field a little bit. Morikawa isn’t long off the tee, but he’s accurate and he’s one of the best approach players in the world. He’s finished 4th, 4th and 2nd in his last 3 starts, nearly catching Scheffler at the Memorial Tournament on Sunday.

U.S. Open – Top-10 picks

Xander Schauffele (+110)

Schauffele is one of the most consistent U.S. Open players on tour, finishing 3rd, 5th, 7th, 14th and 10th in his last 5 appearances. And now that he’s gotten the major monkey off his back by winning the PGA in May, he might feel less pressure to perform this week. At plus money, he’s a great bet for another top 10 in a major, of which he’s had 13 in his career since 2017 – including 6 of 7 U.S. Open appearances.

Cameron Smith (+320)

Pinehurst has some links-like attributes to it, requiring creativity around the greens and off the tee with the amount of runout shots will have. Smith, the 2022 Open champion, should excel on a course like this if he can keep the ball in the fairway. He’s a top putter and wizard with a wedge, so he’s set up well this week.

Max Homa (+320)

Homa doesn’t have a great record in the majors, but he started playing better this year with a 3rd place at the Masters and 35th at the PGA. He’s struggled off the tee, ranking 125th in strokes gained, but he’s great around the greens and above average on approach. Those are 2 key stats for players this week.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Rory McIlroy (+125)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

U.S. Open – Top-20 picks

Hideki Matsuyama (+160)

Matsuyama always comes with some injury concerns, but he looked healthy and in good form at Muirfield where he finished 8th. He’s far and away the best player around the greens on tour, ranking 1st this season, so saving par is something he’s very good at. Also, he’s made the cut in 10 of 11 U.S. Open appearances, including each of the last 7.

Tommy Fleetwood (+138)

In his last 4 starts, Fleetwood hasn’t finished worse than 26th and he could be in for a particularly good showing at Pinehurst where driving accuracy and short game will be critical to a player’s success. Fleetwood thrives in both areas and his recent form is good enough to warrant a top-20 bet at Pinehurst.

Dean Burmester (+300)

Burmester has played exceptionally well on LIV this season, ranking 3rd in points earned for the year. He has a win and 6 total top-20 finishes in his last 6 starts on LIV, becoming a legitimate player on the alternate tour. He could be a sleeper this week in North Carolina.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Robert MacIntyre (+275)
Keegan Bradley (+250)

U.S. Open – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Hideki Matsuyama (-135) vs. Patrick Cantlay (+105)

Cantlay shockingly missed the cut at Muirfield, a limited-field event, and one he’s won twice before. That’s a bad sign for his current form and now that he’s heading into an event with similarly difficult conditions, he could struggle.

Cameron Smith (+120) vs. Matt Fitzpatrick (-150)

Yes, Fitzpatrick is a former U.S. Open champion, but he shouldn’t be -150 over a player of Smith’s caliber – especially given Smith’s high ceiling and low floor. I’m more confident in Smith winning this week than Fitzpatrick, so give me the Aussie.

U.S. Open – Top South African

Dean Burmester (+150)

Burmester and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are co-favorites to be the top South African in the field at +150, but Burmester has higher upside at this course and given his recent play.

U.S. Open – Top Swedish

Alex Noren (+220)

It’s not that I don’t think Ludvig Aberg will play well this week, it’s just that the knee injury is somewhat concerning and Noren at +220 is a very good number in what’s essentially a head-to-head against Aberg; Tim Widig is the only other Swede in the field.

U.S. Open – First-round leader

Xander Schauffele (+2200, +225 for top 10)

We hit Schauffele to be the 1st-round leader at the PGA Championship and we’re going back to it at the U.S. Open. He’s tied with Morikawa in 1st-round scoring average (68.08) this season and is always a fantastic U.S. Open player. It just makes too much sense.

Collin Morikawa (+2500, +250 for top 10)

Morikawa is another player to take for a 1st-round lead, or at least a top-10 after Thursday’s round. As mentioned, he’s tied for 2nd in 1st-round scoring average and has played well in both majors so far this year.

U.S. Open – To make the cut

Suggested play in bold.

Phil Mickelson: YES (+200) vs. No (-275)

Mickelson is looking to complete the career grand slam and while that’s highly unlikely to happen, making the cut is a real possibility. With odds this long, it’s not a bad play, if only for the storyline of Lefty trying to complete the career slam.

More expert prop bet predictions

Any LIV player to win: Yes (+400)

DeChambeau, Koepka, Jon Rahm and Smith are all among the 11 favorites to win outright this week, and I’m particularly confident in DeChambeau, Koepka or Smith getting the job done. It’s worth betting each individually but at +400 for any LIV player to win, it’s an even safer way to play those guys.

Winning margin: 1 shot (+240)

Kaymer ran away from the field and dominated here in 2014 but that’s not going to happen again. There will be enough carnage on this course to bring everyone to around even par, resulting in a close finish on Sunday.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]