Christian McCaffrey is the near-universal 1.01 pick in every fantasy draft. Expect Josh Allen to be around a third-round pick in most leagues, and perhaps the first pick when it is a league starting two-quarterbacks. He will be the first quarterback selected. Want a tight end? Sam LaPorta is the first to go, even before Travis Kelce #GreatestTightEndEver #IsSheThere. CeeDee Lamb climbed the rankings and is the first wideout taken in nearly every draft. Why? Because these players were the top in their positions in 2023.
And hey – how great do they look on a shiny new fantasy roster this summer?
Happens every year. Literally – I’ve played fantasy football for over 30 years and it always happens. And yes, if I am first to raid a position, the previous No. 1 kind of screams “Take me! Don’t be an idiot!”
But do they really deliver again? How reliable have they been over the last ten years, at least returning as a viable and upper-tier pick?
Quarterbacks – 20% reliable
Finishing as the No. 10 fantasy quarterback the next season means that the player did not kill you, but offered no advantage – something you expect when selecting the first player from a position. And removing Josh Allen from the equation drops the return rate to pretty much 0%. Picking Allen again should payoff for the fifth-straight year.
Running Backs – 20% reliable
The expectation that running backs rise and fall more than any other position is true. Christian McCaffrey is the only player showing up twice, and his 2020 “next season” performance flopped due to injury which is always a fear with running backs. Todd Gurley posted a No. 3 after his 2017 season which was about the last we saw of his knees. Saquon Barkley managed the feat as a rookie and has struggled with his own injury problems. The negative in being the No. 1 in any year is that for running backs, that meant a high-volume of touches that often lead to injury issues the following season.
Tight Ends – 90% reliable
The only outlier was Gronkowski who was a beast for two straight years and then battled injuries the next year. But otherwise, the worst you’d get with the No. 1 tight end was the No. 3 – still a major advantage in a position that holds minimal difference-makers. That feels good for the LaPorta pickers who are spending a third or fourth round pick to start the tight end run. But this position has been all about Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce for the last decade.
Wide Receiver – 60% reliable*
Given the antics and bad press for Antonio Brown, it is easy to forget just how dominant a player that he was. The return rate for the top receiver was arguably 100% without injuries the next year. Michael Thomas broke down in 2020 after his historic 149-catch season that so far ended his fantasy value with constant ankle, hamstring and knee issues. He was like a running back that was just used up one season and never bounced back. Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson also saw their next season shortened due to injuries.
*It is notable that the number of catches seems to translate into injuries the next year. Consider the receptions that followed a No. 1 performance over the last five seasons and their following results when they had more than 125 receptions.
Michael Thomas (149-40)
Davante Adams (115-123)
Cooper Kupp (145-75)
Justin Jefferson (128-68)
CeeDee Lamb (135-?)
The Cowboys have changed nothing on their offense, so Lamb’s role should remain the same. But it at least draws a question as to whether Lamb can repeat without injury. None of the previous 125+ catch wideouts that were No. 1 were able to stay healthy during the last five years. Only Adams returned with a high-performance, but he only caught 115 passes when he recorded his No. 1.