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The New England Patriots begin a new era, as Jerod Mayo takes over as head coach after future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick and owner Robert Kraft agreed to part ways after 24 seasons and 6 Super Bowl titles.
The Patriots hit rock-bottom last season, going 4-13, which was reminiscent the 1990s during the Raymond Berry, Rod Rust and Don McPherson days.
New England has also moved on from QB Mac Jones, as he was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Patriots signed journeyman Jacoby Brissett to bridge the gap until 1st-round pick QB Drake Maye is ready to assume the starting duties. WR Ja’Lynn Polk was added in Round 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft, as well as WR Javon Baker in Round 4. So, the Patriots are trying to get faster at the skill positions in a hurry.
While the offense was awful in 2023, the defense was amazing, and kept New England in games. It allowed just 301.6 total yards per game to rank 7th in the NFL, according to covers.com, while allowing just 93.2 rushing yards per game, checking in 4th. On that side of the ball, things are in good shape, and the strength of the team.
Below, we look at the New England Patriots’ 2024 NFL Super Bowl odds from FanDuel Sportsbook along with projected win total, playoff, conference and division odds as we make our best NFL picks and predictions.
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2024 New England Patriots schedule
| WK | DATE | OPPONENT | TIME |
| All times ET; *–At London | |||
| 1 | Sept. 8 | at Bengals | 1 p.m. |
| 2 | Sept. 15 | vs. Seahawks | 1 p.m. |
| 3 | Sept. 19 (Th) | at Jets | 8:15 p.m. |
| 4 | Sept. 29 | at 49ers | 4:05 p.m. |
| 5 | Oct. 6 | vs. Dolphins | 1 p.m. |
| 6 | Oct. 13 | vs. Texans | 1 p.m. |
| 7 | Oct. 20 | vs. Jaguars-* | 9:30 a.m. |
| 8 | Oct. 27 | vs. Jets | 1 p.m. |
| 9 | Nov. 3 | at Titans | 1 p.m. |
| 10 | Nov. 10 | at Bears | 1 p.m. |
| 11 | Nov. 17 | vs. Rams | 1 p.m. |
| 12 | Nov. 24 | at Dolphins | 1 p.m. |
| 13 | Dec. 1 | vs. Colts | 1 p.m. |
| 14 | BYE WEEK | ||
| 15 | Dec. 15 | at Cardinals | 4:25 p.m. |
| 16 | Dec. 22 | at Bills | 1 p.m. |
| 17 | Dec. 28 or 29 | vs. Chargers | TBD |
| 18 | Jan. 4 or 5 | vs. Bills | TBD |
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Patriots over/under win total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook – last updated May 21 at 2:38 p.m. ET; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list.
- 4.5 wins: (Over: -162 | Under: +132)
According to the Sharp Football Analysis, which based its calculations off the Vegas Forecasted Win Totals, the Patriots have the 2nd-most difficult schedule in the NFL. Their implied line of 4.87 wins is slightly higher than the projections by the sportsbooks.
Looking at the schedule, Brissett should provide a little stability early on, unless Maye lights it on fire in the preseason to win the job immediately. New England has 3 road games in 4 weeks to start, though, including road trips to Cincinnati and San Francisco.
It’s hard to see any bright spots in the schedule, as the hits just keep on coming against contenders week in and week out. The defense is legit, and will keep the Patriots in a lot of games, but the young offense still has a lot of work to do before it can be trusted.
Based upon this brutal schedule, UNDER 4.5 (+132) is a value play at plus-money, although Mayo should be able to get things turned around in a hurry with another strong draft, especially if the offense can catch up to the defense.
Patriots Super Bowl odds
- +18000 (bet $100 to win $18,000)
The Patriots have the 2nd-longest odds to win the Super Bowl, with only the Carolina Panthers (+30000) with longer odds. The books certainly don’t believe in Mayo, and there doesn’t appear to be a Super Bowl run coming in Foxboro anytime soon.
The team drafted some impressive young players on the offensive side of the ball, and as long as Maye isn’t the 2nd coming of Jones, New England is on a path back to respectability.
The San Francisco 49ers (+550) are the favorites, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs (+600) and Baltimore Ravens (+950).
At +18000, Denver has an implied probability of winning the Super Bowl of just 0.55% or 180/1 fractional odds.
After the Panthers and Patriots, the Broncos and Commanders also have long odds to win the Super Bowl at +15000.
There is no real good reason to back the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, as Tom Brady isn’t walking through that door.
AVOID.
Will Patriots make the playoffs?
- Yes +980 | No -2200
The books aren’t very optimistic that the Patriots are going to turn things around quickly, and long-term bettors should hold the ‘Mayo’. Yeah, that was bad.
New England won just 4 games a season ago, and that was with a tremendous defense and poor offense. The Patriots are turning things over to either Brissett as a caretaker, or Maye to get a baptism by fire. Either way, the offense is likely to struggle again, and the schedule is absolutely brutal. There is just no way to see this team winning at least 9 or 10 games to qualify for the postseason.
However, it will cost you 22 times to bet against the Patriots to make the postseason, and there is no value tying up a ton of money over multiple months for just a little bit of return.
PASS.
Odds to win AFC East Division
- Bills +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
- Dolphins +185 (bet $100 to win $185)
- Jets +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
- Patriots +2400 (bet $100 to win $2,400)
New England’s implied probability of winning the AFC East is 4.00% or 24/1 fractional odds. The AFC East is expected to be a 3-horse race, and the Patriots are not one of those thoroughbreds.
Unless we see the other 3 teams beat up on each other rather evenly, or suffer injuries to key positions, New England should be a distant 4th in this divisional race.
AVOID, as the Patriots could be eliminated from the division race before the leaves have fully turned in New England.
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Patriots odds to win AFC
- +9000 (bet $100 to win $9,000)
The Patriots have the longest odds to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. For haters, it’s been a beautiful last couple of years after decades of nonstop Patriots success.
Mayo was on the Patriots when they won Super Bowl XLIX against the Seattle Seahawks in Feb. 2015. But it’s going to be a long time before Mayo and the Patriots get back to the big game.
PASS. It is going to be a difficult task for the Patriots to even duplicate last season’s win total based on this brutal schedule.
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