Texans enter 2024 season with seventh-hardest schedule

The Houston Texans enter the season with one of the toughest schedules in the league, and one of the rockiest paths back to the postseason.

Life as a reigning division champion is tough, as is evident by the Houston Texans’ impending 2024 schedule. 

After a surprising run to the AFC Divisional Round, the Texans added to their roster, hoping to elevate into Super Bowl contention. With star quarterback C.J. Stroud entering year two of his rookie contract, Houston took big swings, acquiring Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs in trades, and signing Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair during free agency.

If the Texans hope to return to the postseason, they must overcome a rigorous schedule that includes seven playoff teams from a year ago. Three of the franchises made it to the conference championship game, including reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City. 

With the release of the 2024 schedule and projected win totals, Sharp Football Analysis revealed its strength of schedule model.

Houston enters the year with the league’s seventh-hardest schedule, with an implied win total of 9.8 games, which would be higher than Las Vegas’ total of 9.5. 

The national media seems eager to see how Houston handles the challenge, placing them in four primetime games and six nationally televised contests. Before 2024, the Texans played standalone games in three seasons combined. 

Sharp Football’s prediction from a year ago proved fairly accurate. The top 16 predicted easiest schedules from 2023 resulted in 11 teams — including the Texans —posting a winning record. 

Houston repeating as AFC South champions may be more challenging than returning to the playoffs. Houston’s Week 1 opponent Indianapolis has the seventh-easiest predicted schedule.

Jacksonville currently owns the14th-easiest schedule. As for Tennessee under first-year coach Brian Callahan, things become daunting with the sixth-hardest schedule. 

This season, the AFC South plays each opponent from the NFC North and AFC East, inluding No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. After starting 3-8, the Bears went 4-2 in the final six games.

Coupled with a potential quarterback upgrade, plus the additon of Pro Bowl receiver Keenan Allen and top-10 pick Rome Odunze, the Bears may be on the rise. 

 

Changes came to the AFC East this offseason following the departure of Bill Belichick in New England after two-plus decades. Former Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo took over but it’s likely a retooling year with a rookie quarterback.

On top of matchups with the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, Houston a plays Baltimore and Kansas City outside the divisional alignments. 

The combined winning percentage of those three a year ago was 70.5%. Houston’s scheduled opponents won 53% of their games last season.