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The best players in the world will be competing for the Wanamaker Trophy this week at the 2024 PGA Championship. The year’s 2nd major is being hosted for the 4th time by Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Ky. First round tees off on Thursday morning.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets from BetMGM Sportsbook among the 2024 PGA Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the heavy favorite at +450, and he’s also the top-ranked player in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Rory McIlroy comes in at No. 2 in the rankings, and he also has the 2nd-shortest odds (+750) to win this week – which would be his 3rd consecutive victory on tour. Brooks Koepka may be ranked 29th in Golfweek’s poll but he has the 3rd-best odds to win (+1400), with fellow LIV Golf member Jon Rahm being 5th (+1800).
Valhalla is a brute of a course, coming in at 7,609 yards as a par 71. The venue was renovated in 2021 in advance of this year’s PGA Championship, which comes 10 years after the last time Valhalla hosted (2014). The overall length of the course is 151 yards longer than it was in 2014, so it should play even tougher than it did then.
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PGA Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:15 p.m. ET.
Xander Schauffele (+300)
Schauffele couldn’t close out the Wells Fargo Championship thanks to a final-round 65 by McIlroy, and it once again raises some concerns about his inability to close out big tournaments. He could break through with his 1st major win this week, but taking him for a top-5 is much safer.
Rory McIlroy (+160)
McIlroy is still looking for his 1st major title since the 2014 PGA Championship, which just happened to be played at Valhalla. It’ll take a great week for him to beat everyone in the field, but he should be in the mix on Sunday after winning each of his last 2 starts.
Jon Rahm (+333)
This time last year, Rahm was +800 to win the PGA Championship. That’s not much longer than his odds for a top 5 this week, while his outright odds sit at +1800. There’s no question he’s being discounted because of his move to LIV Golf, as well as his struggles at Augusta, but Rahm is still one of the best players in the world.
PGA Championship – Top-10 picks
Brooks Koepka (+150)
Koepka may have flopped at the Masters, but he’s played well since then, even winning a LIV event in the last month. He should have a much better showing at the PGA Championship, an event he’s already won 3 times, including last year at Oak Hill. He’s a great fit for any difficult course like Valhalla because of the way he avoids costly mistakes and scrambles to save par.
Ludvig Aberg (+160)
If Aberg can notch a top 5 in his Masters debut, he can come in the top 10 at the PGA Championship. He’s deadly accurate off the tee while still hitting it plenty long for a course with as much length as Valhalla, and his putter was excellent at Augusta throughout the week.
Cameron Young (+350)
Young has 5 top-10 finkshes in his last 8 major starts, which includes a T-3 at the 2022 PGA Championship. He still hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, but he’s come close several times and this week could be another near-win for Young. He’s at his best when playing difficult courses that don’t turn into birdie fests. Valhalla won’t yield very low scores so Young should be able to hang around.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Max Homa (+275)
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PGA Championship – Top-20 picks
Will Zalatoris (+225)
Zalatoris at +225 for a top-20 finish feels like a fantastic value. He’s finished in the top 10 in 4 of his last 5 starts in the PGA Championship or U.S. Open, with the only exception being a missed cut at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. Valhalla is a ball striker’s course and Zalatoris has the length and accuracy to contend on Sunday.
Cameron Smith (+175)
Smith will need to keep it in the fairway in order to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy because if he starts spraying it off the tee, even his short-game prowess won’t be able to overcome it. That being said, he’s an outstanding putter and chipper so anytime he does miss the green, he’ll have a chance to save par.
Corey Conners (+275)
Conners finished 17th at Kiawah in 2021, missed the cut in the 2022 PGA and came in 12th last year at Oak Hill, so he’s had some success in this major championship before. His iron play will give him a fighting chance at Valhalla, even if his putter stays cold.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Akshay Bhatia (+375)
- Alex Noren (+320)
- Jason Day (+200)
PGA Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Cameron Smith (+115) vs. Joaquin Niemann (-150)
Niemann might have the higher floor, but Smith absolutely has the higher ceiling this week. For that reason, Smith is the better pick at plus money against Niemann, who’s never finished better than 23rd in a U.S. Open or PGA Championship.
Jason Day (-110) vs. Sungjae Im (-110)
Im has been up and down all year and though he’s shown signs of life in his last 2 starts at the RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo, he’s just not a great fit for U.S. Open/PGA Championship-style courses. Day, on the other hand, has won a PGA Championship.
Sahith Theegala (-120) vs. Sam Burns (-105)
Theegala is a legitimate contender this week as he looks to take his career to the next level, showing the creativity around the greens to save par when he misses with an approach.
PGA Championship – Top Japanese
Hideki Matsuyama (+100)
Assuming his back is fine, Matsuyama shouldn’t have much trouble cashing this bet. There are only 3 other Japanese players in the field, none with better odds than +350; Keita Nakajima is the 2nd-favorite behind Matsuyama. It’s surprising this line is only even money.
PGA Championship – Top Debutant
Ludvig Aberg (+300)
Aberg was the top debutant at the Masters and he’s the favorite to be the same at the PGA this week. He just has a complete skill set to perform well at any course. Theegala is the 2nd-favorite to be the top debutant at +900, with Stephan Jaeger, Akshay Bhatia and Jake Knapp also lurking.
PGA Championship – First-round leader
Xander Schauffele (+2800)
Schauffele was the 1st-round leader last week at Quail Hollow with a blistering score of 64, and he now ranks 6th in 1st-round scoring average this season. If you have concerns about his ability to close at a major, take him to be the 1st-round leader at an even better number than his outright odds.
Alex Noren (+9000, +700 for top 10)
Back to Noren we go with this 1st-round wager. He’s fired rounds of 64 and 67 on Thursday in his last 2 starts and has the 3rd-best 1st-round scoring average on tour. He’s been in the top 10 after Round 1 in each of the last 2 tournaments so that’s another way to play this.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group D winner: Will Zalatoris (+450)
Zalatoris is grouped with Tyrrell Hatton (+275), Matsuyama (+350), Day (+350) and Im (+400), yet he has the longest odds of the 5. He has a better track record at the PGA Championship than any of those players in the last 3 years.
Koepka and Schauffele both to finish in top 10 (+900)
Koepka loves the PGA Championship and Schauffele is on a heater with 7 top-10s in his last 10 starts. At +900, it’s worth playing because they’re 2 serious contenders to hoist the trophy on Sunday.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Golfweek:
- PGA Championship 2024 odds, tournament history and picks to win
- Tiger Woods on the state of his game, PGA Tour-PIF negotiations and that goatee
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