For over a decade I’ve tracked the Dallas Cowboys’ trends, tells and tendencies when it comes to the NFL draft. Coinciding with the ascent of Stephen Jones to be the primary negotiator and money man for the club, inheriting the responsibility from owner Jerry Jones, and the reorganization of the scouting department under Will McClay, things have followed a pattern. There are certain things the Cowboys fundamentally believe in, other things they look to achieve and other things still that tend to happen more often than not, even when not a solid rule.
I’ve termed the collection of thoughts as the Cowboys Draft Commandments, and each season, choose 10 from among them that feel like safe bets when analyzing a given draft class and where Dallas chooses in the rounds. Last season, 2023, the Cowboys didn’t really adhere to the Commandments and it may have resulted in one of the worst-performing rookie classes in recent memory. The book is not written on the class as a whole; no class should be judged before three years, but first impressions aren’t irrelevant.
Here’s a look at the 10 commandments outlined for 2023, how well the team stuck to them and how they worked out, ranked in order of importance for 2024.
Commitment Level: 2 of 10
Result So Far: C-
2023 Rank: No. 2
This is about drafting for positions the team is not likely to sign their entrenched starter when they hit free agency the following season. In essence, draft the replacement a year early.
Here’s what I wrote last year:
What positions fall under this category? Dallas has four monster contracts on the horizon: CB Trevon Diggs, WR CeeDee Lamb, QB Dak Prescott and Edge Micah Parsons. Any of the first three could be extended this year and Parsons can be extended next year.
RB Tony Pollard, LT Tyron Smith, RT Terence Steele, center Tyler Biadasz are all expiring deals on offense. On defense, Stephon Gilmore and Jourdan Lewis make CB a must to prepare for. Safeties Malik Hooker and Jayron Kearse are expiring and depth defensive ends Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler are free after 2023.
Diggs did get his extension, as did Steele and Hooker.
Pollard, Smith, Biadasz, Armstrong, and Fowler will all have new homes in 2024 while Gilmore and Kearse are still on the market. Only Lewis returned after hitting free agency.
But the issue is, Dallas didn’t address any of those pending departures with premium picks.
2024 Outlook
Now it’s the 2024 draft and the Cowboys are staring at huge needs at tackle, center and running back. The consensus is that Dallas is going to choose from these immediate needs, but if they spin it forward, don’t be surprised if prospects are chosen throughout the weekend to take care of future holes.
- 3-Technique defensive tackle. – Fan favorite Osa Odighizuwa is a pending free agent with just nine career sacks. His rotational backup, draft classmate Chauncey Golston has just 3.5. If the team intends for Mazi Smith to still be a nose tackle, then finding their next 3T is imperative.
- Edge Defender. – It’s wild to think, but this could be DeMarcus Lawrence’s last year as a starting edge for the Cowboys. Sam Williams was supposed to be the heir apparent, but there is a question on how well he’ll adjust to a bigger role this season. Even if he does, this is Year 3 for him, so adding more to the pipeline is important anyway.
- Wide Receiver. – As of yet, Dallas hasn’t worked out an agreement with First-Team All-Pro CeeDee Lamb, who is going to play on the fifth-year option. Brandin Cooks, WR2, is on the final year of his two-year deal. There are no other receivers with real skins on the wall on the roster.
- Quarterback. – Yeah. That whole Dak Prescott thing, along with Trey Lance being on the final year of his rookie deal and still being completely unproven.
Commitment Level: 7 of 10
Result So Far: C-
2023 Rank: No. 1
When I was on staff at Blogging the Boys in the first part of last decade, we dissected multiple Cowboys draft boards, to the team’s dismay. The whirlwind from those has now turned into Jerry Jones doing the leaking himself. With that info, we’ve been able to tell when the Cowboys had someone ranked atop a positional board whenever they don’t take the first player at a given position.
Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, Morris Claiborne, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Byron Jones (played mostly safety as a rookie) and Ezekiel Elliott made this a seven-year trend. It returned with CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons and Tyler Smith at guard.
In 2023 they selected Mazi Smith, who was the third DT off the board. Now while Smith was certainly the biggest of the top DTs, it’s hard to argue he was a better anything than Jalen Carter was. Technically Carter was the best nose, because he was the best at everything he did and weighed in at 315 pounds.
2024 Outlook
Barring a trade up, the Cowboys are likely going to be frozen out of taking the best player at several positions they are interested in. This commandment becomes somewhat difficult when picking in the tail end of the round, but that’s the magic of it.
According to Raiders Wire’s Marcus Mosher, who tracks a consensus big board, Dallas has no shot at the top QB, WR, OT, Edge or Boundary CB; the Money 5 positions, unless a prospect they have ranked way above consensus drops to them.
Defensive tackle, which has quickly become a top-paid position, could be in play, depending on the ranking and availability of Byron Murphy and Jer’zhan Newton. That leaves interior OL (Graham Barton, Jackson Powers-Johnson, Christian Haynes, Zack Frazier), linebacker (Payton Wilson, Edgerrin Cooper), running back (Johnathon Brooks) and nickel corner (Mike Sainristil) as the top-10 candidates for Dallas if they stay put or trade back.
Commitment Level: 7 of 10
Result So Far: B
2023 Rank: No. 4
The Cowboys started strong with this commandment, but faded off of it a bit on Day 3. Smith and Luke Schoonmaker, were ridiculously good athletes coming out of Michigan. Smith was No. 1 on Bruce Feldman’s freak list with insane athleticism for a 340-pound tackle. Schoonmaker had a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 9.86 out of 10 as a tight end.
LB DeMarvion Overshown was a green (highest tier) RAS of 8.18 and was taken in the third round. Sixth-round CB Eric Scott was an 8.69 RAS. OL Asim Richards was an average athlete, Viliami Fehoko and WR Jalen Brooks were below average and Deuce Vaughn’s RAS score was really bad.
2024 Outlook
This is always a wait-and-see approach commandment. We’ll soon find out just how much athleticism plays a role in their 2024 haul.
Commitment Level: 8 of 10
Result So Far: C-
2023 Rank: No. 3
“Dallas has a preference to draft the following positions, in order, t1) Defensive Line t1) Linebackers, t1) Cornerbacks, t4) Offensive Line, t4) Wide Receiver.” This is where the Cowboys spend most of their premium picks. It’s extremely rare for them to look at other positions as anything but exceptions to the rule within their first three rounds, and sometimes into the fourth.
In 2023 Dallas went DL with their first and fourth rounders, and a linebacker in the third. DeMarvion Overshown and Viliami Fehoko missed the season and Mazi Smith made zero impact.
2022: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams and Jalen Tolbert went 1-2-3.
2021: Micah Parsons, Kelvin Joseph, Osa Odighizuwa, Chauncey Golston, Nahshon Wright, Jabril Cox
2020: CeeDee Lamb, Trevon Diggs, Neville Gallimore, Reggie Robinson
2019: Trysten Hill, Connor McGovern, and Tony Pollard was mostly a slot receiver at Memphis
2018: Leighton Vander Esch, Connor Williams, Michael Gallup
2024 Outlook
The Cowboys have a strong top-three at cornerback, pending the speed at which Trevon Diggs can return to form. But with DaRon Bland and Jourdan Lewis in tow, CB feels like more of a Day 3 fill though Michigan’s Sainristil is an intriguing nickel option as a trade-back candidate.
The other positions are once again front and center to be bombarded early and often. DT and LB are huge defensive needs and they lost two OL starters to free agency.
2023 Commitment Level: 9 of 10
Result So Far: C-
2023 Rank: No. 7
The Cowboys have never been afraid of public perception when it comes to who they draft and when. They believe in their grades of players and pay little attention to the consensus except for this keen tactic. If a player is seen as not going to be there the next time they come on the clock, they’ll draft a round early.
Often times in the post-draft presser, Dallas will reveal they took a player who was lower on their evaluation list because they felt the tide of the draft was going to see that prospect taken, and someone else they liked could fall based on how other teams addressed their needs. It’s actually one of the savvier things the team does well in the draft process.
Mazi Smith was seen by most as a mid or late second-round prospect in 2023. Schoonmaker was a third or fourth-round tight end. One would be hard-pressed to find Overshown on anyone’s top 100.Yet there they all were, hearing their names called when they did with Dallas on the clock.
A year early in 2022? Tyler Smith, Sam Williams.
2024 Outlook:
Think running back in Round 1, or a center like Zach Frazier, and then also focus on the third round if they don’t trade back to pick up a fourth, there might be a player they see as a star in the making that they won’t get in the fifth and take him at No. 87.
2023 Commitment Level: 10 of 10
Result So Far: C-
2023 Rank: No. 9
Since McClay’s ascension following the 2013 draft, the club has preferred to steer clear of most small-school prospects. The transition was clear in analyzing previous drafts. From 2009 through 2013, the Cowboys took seven players from non-FBS schools with no success. Starting with the 2014 class, that number dropped all the way to zero.
McClay confirmed as much soon after the 2014 draft, via ESPN.
“The difference is if you’re from a small school and you’re coming into this situation you might not be ready for the bright lights,” said Will McClay, the Cowboys’ assistant director of player personnel, who put the draft board together. “The guys who have been through playing those games where there are 90,000 people in the stands, they’ve had those situations there, they’ll [be] a little bit [more] used to it. If they got the same physical traits, I’m going to go with the guy whose been there before, [over] the guy who you got to wait to come up.”
Power 5 (SEC, B1G, Big 12, Pac 12, ACC) over Group of 5 (AAC, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt) over FCS and everyone else.
2023: Power 5 (6), Group of 5 (2), Others (0)
2022: Power 5 (5), Group of 5 (3), Others (1)
2021: Power 5 (10), Group of 5 (1), Others (0)
2020: Power 5 (5), Group of 5 (1), Others (1)
2019: Power 5 (6), Group of 5 (2), Others (0)
2018: Power 5 (5), Group of 5 (4), Others (0)
2017: Power 5 (8), Group of 5 (1), Others (0)
2016: Power 5 (7), Group of 5 (2), Others (0)
2015: Power 5 (7), Group of 5 (1), Others (0)
2014: Power 5 (7), Group of 5 (2), Others (0)
2024 Outlook:
Expect the trend to remain, as Dallas’ pre-draft interest list is completely dominated by players from Power 5 conference schools, with a small sprinkling of Group of 5 universitie, primarily from Conference USA.
Commitment Level: 9 of 10
Result So Far: C-
2023 Rank: No. 5
A quick reminder, I don’t assign grades lower than C- until the book has been written. Think of the grades as A+ = 10, C- = 2.
Little did anyone outside of the teams know at the time, but Schoonmaker had plantar fasciitis from his final games at Michigan, including leaving the Fiesta Bowl loss early. That put him right in line with the storied tradition.
The Cowboys love to take a swing for the fences in the second round and find a prospect they think is elite but who has fallen due to injury or conduct concerns.
In 2022, we predicted Sam Williams selection:
“There are several players who could fit into the injury/troubled profile for Dallas this draft. WRs George Pickens and John Metchie III fit the bill, as do defensive ends David Ojabo and Sam Williams.“
2021: Kelvin Joseph – Off-field flags
2016: Jaylon Smith – ACL injury/nerve damage
2015: Randy Gregory – failed combine drug test, admitted self-medic
2013: Gavin Escobar
2011: Bruce Carter – ACL injury
2010: Sean Lee – ACL injury
The team also will go the trade route here and there (2014: DeMarcus Lawrence, 2012: Morris Claiborne).
2024 Outlook
There are a handful of prospects who are expected to be off the board long before Dallas hits the clock at No. 56, that qualify here in a bit. There’s injury concerns for Georgia OT Amarius Mims, but they may not keep him out of Round 1, or early Round 2. Missouri CB Ennis Rakestraw could be in the same range.
But what about North Carolina State’s Payton Wilson? He is likely one of the two most talented linebackers in this class, but has torn one ACL two times, missed a season with a shoulder injury and missed extended time with another leg injury in 2023. He’s the perfect fit if another team doesn’t take the risk.
Texas RB Johnathon Brooks suffered a torn ACL in November and probably wouldn’t be ready to start the season at 100%, but he’s largely seen as the most talented back in the class when healthy. West Virginia center Zach Frazier suffered a broken leg in November 2023 and was unable to participate in the testing at the scouting combine.
Florida State RB Trey Benson is another perfect candidate for this selection as he has longevity concerns over his ACL.
2023 Commitment Level: 1 of 10
Result So Far: C-
2023 Rank: No. 8
The most famous of the commandments has now become common knowledge among the Cowboys fanbase, but this “fact” originated when this column did earlier last decade.
There was a sneaky suspicion this commandment wasn’t ranking highly on their priority list in 2023, and nothing bit the team more. Dallas does well when they are intimately familiar with how someone reacts to the pomp and circumstance of the facility visit, and also how well they do in the face-to-face meeting with the entire coaching staff.
Every year, at least two to three prospects are selected from the visit list and many times more. DaRon Bland, Sam Williams, Markquese Bell and Malik Davis were all visitors in 2022. The pandemic was raging in 2021, so pre-draft visits were nixed, and in 2020 only Trevon Diggs was on the list. Prior to that though, it was a really big deal.
From 2006 through 2019 every top pick (almost all first rounders save Trysten Hill in 2019) were 30 visitors except for when they traded up for Claiborne. In 2016, they went extra heavy on running back and quarterback visits and drafted the top two rookies in Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott.
But in 2023, only DeMarvion Overshown and Villiami Fehoko were on either list.
2024 Outlook
The Cowboys flooded their 30 visit list with offensive linemen (7), running backs (6) and linebackers (5) this offseason. Fans shouldn’t be shocked to see the team walk away with all three in their limited haul.
2023 Commitment Level: 9 of 10
Result So Far: C-
2023 Rank: No. 6
There was a stretch in the Jerry Jones era as draft lead where he was Wheel-n-Deal.
Between 2007 and 2013, the Cowboys traded, either up or down, six out of the seven first rounds. They moved back in 2007 and 2013, moved up for a better pick in 2008, 2010 and 2012 and traded the pick away in 2009. 2011 was the only year in that span they stayed put, and selected franchise left tackle Tyron Smith.
However things have changed recently. In the last seven drafts, Dallas has stayed put where their first-pick slot was. In 2022 they had an offer from Tennessee to bail for an extra third but stayed and took Tyler Smith. Last year, Kansas City made a similar offer and stayed to take Mazi Smith.
Based on the limited production from Smith and the rest of the class in general, the Cowboys should’ve accepted KC’s offer and gotten the extra pick.
2024 Outlook:
This may seriously be tested on Thursday. Dallas is without a fourth-round pick and with numerous roster holes, despite how they try to portray things. Trading back from No. 24 is the best way to add serious draft capital and help make up for their missing fourth round.
2023 Commitment Level: 5 of 10
Result So Far: C-
2023 Rank: No. 10
The Cowboys are notorious for their inability to keep a secret and the pre-draft press conference has annually given a ton of insight into the team’s intentions over draft weekend.
Last year, the club indicated (again) that it was unlikely to have a first-round grade on whomever they took at No. 26, that while taking a RB in Round 1 wasn’t out of the question, they no longer thought it to be a wise investment, and that they likely weren’t going to address the offensive line in their high-pedigree picks.
2024 Outlook
In this year’s presser, the Cowboys’ front office was much more defensive than in year’s past, as their inactivity in free agency, combined with Jerry Jones’ “all-in” comment early in the offseason has the fan base riled up. It seems the media has taken a cue and pressed the brass on a variety of topics.
Pertaining to the draft, the Cowboys are open to trading down to acquire more picks, view Trey Lance as their QB draft pick and are basically spinning things forward to 2025.