A win on Friday could drastically change the way this 2024 Duke season is remembered.
The Blue Devils won 24 games in the regular season, but they went 0-3 against teams within the top 10 of KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, including a sweep at the hands of rival North Carolina. They missed out on a chance to claim a share of the ACC title on their home court in the regular-season finale, and they bowed out in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament.
All that changes with a win in the Sweet 16, however.
To this point, with two tournament wins, the Blue Devils have looked excellent. They beat No. 13 Vermont after pulling away in the second half before beating No. 12 James Madison by nearly 40 points. However, on paper, all they managed to do was not get upset. As a No. 4 seed, the difference between the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight is the difference between a good postseason and a great one.
All that stands in their way is the chance to do something the program hasn’t done in three decades: beat a higher seed. Not just any higher seed, either, but No. 1 Houston, who sat atop the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll for more than a month earlier this season.
Do the Blue Devils have what it takes to pull off the upset? Here’s a breakdown of what’s working in their favor and against them before tipoff on Friday night.
Well, the Cougars survived opening weekend, which is always a harder task than it sounds for top seeds. However, Houston really tried its hardest not to.
After a 40-point win over No. 16 Longwood in the opening round, the Cougars needed overtime to dispatch Texas A&M in the second round. The Aggies refused to go away, trailing by 12 points with 1:53 to play and trailing by three with less than two seconds left. Andersson Garcia managed to grab an in-bounds pass and beat the buzzer for a game-tying three, however, capping off a 17-5 run to end regulation and force overtime.
One could even argue the Aggies beat themselves after they missed 16 free throws as a team and star Wade Taylor IV went 5/26 from the floor, but Houston survived thanks to a 30-point game from sophomore Emanuel Sharp. The Cougars deserve their offensive credit, shooting 51.5% from the floor after two other starters scored at least 20 points.
Houston isn’t just one of the best defensive teams in the country, they’re one of the best defensive teams of the last decade.
The Cougars are second in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, per KenPom’s advanced metrics, and they surrender 0.88 adjusted points per possession. They’ve held their opponents to an effective field-goal percentage of 43.9% and a 3-point percentage of 30.0%, both top-10 marks in the nation. They also force turnovers on nearly a quarter of opposing possessions, the third-highest rate in the country.
On top of that, Houston is a methodical and mistake-free offense. The Cougars’ starting lineup consists of three seniors, and they are ninth in offensive turnover rate and 11th in offensive rebounding rate. The end result is a unit that ranks 14th in adjusted points per possession despite being outside the top 300 in tempo.
As a No. 1 seed with four losses this season, the Cougars are, as you would expect, good at everything.
There are trends and patterns that can be exploited, however. The Cougars shoot 34.9% from 3-point range, above the national median but outside the top 100, and their 50.5% effective field-goal percentage is right on the national average.
Kelvin Sampson’s team gives up a surprising number of offensive rebounds, allowing one on 31% of possessions to sit outside the country’s top 250, and they are one of the nation’s worst teams at allowing their opponents to reach the free-throw line. That last part was on full display against Texas A&M when the Aggies got 45 free-throw attempts. The Cougars themselves are unreliable from the line, shooting less than 70% on their free throws.
Another note? Houston is 345th in average height, and every Cougars starter is 6-foot-9 or shorter. Not for nothing, but the Blue Devils are 33rd in average height bolstered by 7-footer Kyle Filipowski and 6-foot-9 forward Mark Mitchell.
When the opposing team has an All-American, there’s no other answer. Senior guard Jamal Shead is averaging 13.2 points and 6.4 assists per game, and he’s snagged 3.8 rebounds despite his 6-foot-1 frame because he jumps like he’s in a trampoline park.
On top of all of that, Shead is the easy pick for the best defensive guard in the country, and he may be the best defensive player period. He averages more than two steals per game, and his effort and speed are a big reason why the Cougars are near-impossible to shoot on.
Shead is the eighth-best player in the country this season, according to KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings, and he’s second only to Connecticut’s Tristen Newton among guards.
Kyle Filipowski’s tournament numbers are a little deceptive. After all, he only took one shot against Vermont after he was double-teamed the entire game, and there was no use taking the ball out of Jared McCain’s hands against James Madison. The 7-footer is averaging 8.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game in the tournament thus far.
Either way, however, the Blue Devils’ All-American is averaging 8.5 points. If the Blue Devils want to succeed against the Cougars, they need him to establish himself in the interior. A lot of Duke’s pick-and-roll game and perimeter spacing stems from the attention Filipowski demands, and as mentioned above Houston is massively undersized despite their defensive prowess.
Filipowski won’t be guarded by anyone taller than 6-foot-9, and the Duke big man’s passing vision is special for his size. If the sophomore can start working the paint early and distributing from the inside, Duke might have a path to some open perimeter looks against the best defensive backcourt in basketball. Even if that doesn’t come to fruition, he may be more successful than most big men against the Cougars.
I told myself I wouldn’t do this. I had the Blue Devils losing to the Cougars in my bracket. Duke’s three starting guards have been massively inconsistent since February began, and I told myself I wouldn’t fall for it if the Blue Devils had a great game from distance.
But I can’t shake the way they looked against James Madison.
Yes, the team shooting 52.4% from the floor and 50% from beyond the 3-point line is impressive. Yes, Jared McCain making his first six 3-point attempts and finishing the game 8/11 is exciting. And yes, doing all of that against a James Madison team holding opponents under 30% from beyond the arc offers promise that they could do at least something remotely similar against the Cougars.
It’s the defense that really sold me, however. Duke allowed the Dukes to shoot just 38% from the floor and 22% from three, and the Blue Devils have allowed 51 points per game in the tournament thus far. If that’s for real, and the offense has even a semblance of a groove back, this is the team Duke fans expected in the preseason.
Prediction: Duke 68, Houston 64