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The Grambling Tigers (21-14) and Purdue Boilermakers (29-4) meet in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament Friday. Tip-off from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is set for 7:25 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Grambling vs. Purdue odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Grambling, the 16 seed in the Midwest Region, tangled with Montana State in a Wednesday First Four contest in Dayton. The 4½-point underdog Tigers defeated the Bobcats 88-81 in overtime. The champions of the Southwestern Athletic Conference are 4-0 in the postseason and have won 10 of their last 11.
Top-seeded Purdue, which is No. 3 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, was upset by Wisconsin 76-75 in the Big Ten Tournament Friday as a 5.5-point favorite. The Big Ten regular-season champs have cooled a bit on offense of late — especially from looks inside the arc — and are just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) over their last half-dozen games.
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Grambling vs. Purdue odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 3:45 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Grambling +2500 (bet $100 to win $2,500) | Purdue -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Grambling +26.5 (-115) | Purdue -26.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 139.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Grambling vs. Purdue picks and predictions
Prediction
Purdue 77, Grambling 56
Moneyline
There’s no value here: PASS.
Against the spread
Grambling is 7-4 ATS against winning teams. Purdue is 4-15 ATS across its last 19 March games. That includes straight-up losses when favored by double digits each of the last 2 NCAA Tournaments.
This match-up features enough strength-on-strength and weakness-on-weakness that perhaps some of the edge will be softened in Grambling’s shortcomings. Most especially, the Tigers are solid in defending the 3 (PU launches a lot) and their turnover issues (KenPom pegs their rate as No. 338 in NCAA-I) aren’t as likely to be exploited by a stay-at-home Boilermaker defense.
TAKE GRAMBLING +26.5 (-115).
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Over/Under
Purdue will get its rebound-putbacks, its free throws, and likely a decent number of triples. But both teams also tend to settle for a lot of mid-range shots, and the tempo likely will not be fast.
Peg a sliver of a lean on the UNDER 139.5 (-110).
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