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The Wagner Seahawks (15-15) and Merrimack Warriors (21-11) meet in the Northeast Conference (NEC) Championship Game Tuesday at Hammel Court in North Andover, Mass. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Wagner vs. Merrimack odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Sixth-seeded Wagner finished the regular season 2 games under .500 at 13-15, but the Seahawks posted NEC Tourney wins over Sacred Heart (60-57 in a Wednesday quarterfinal) and Central Connecticut State (66-56 in a Saturday semifinal) to get to the title game. Wagner won both games as an underdog, +6 in the quarterfinal and +6.5 in the semi, while cashing the Under in both outings. As a matter of fact, Wagner is on a 5-0 Under run.
Second-seeded Merrimack won the NEC Tournament last season, but was unable to get an NCAA Tournament bid due to transition rules. Fairleigh Dickinson took its spot, and made history winning as a 16-seed over Purdue.
In this NEC Tourney, the Warriors topped Long Island 72-66 in a Wednesday quarterfinal and Le Moyne 61-51 in a Saturday semifinal to get to the championship game. They split against the spread (ATS), failing to cover as 15-point favorites vs. LIU and covering as 7-point favorites vs. Le Moyne while cashing the Under in both outings. Merrimack is 4-1 O/U in its last 5 games and 6-2 O/U in the last 8.
Merrimack and Wagner split their 2 games this regular season with the road teams snagging the win. Wagner took the first meeting as a 6.5-point underdog 71-65 Jan. 19 as the Over (122.5) cashed. The Warriors exacted revenge 6 days later, winning 60-44 as 2-point favorites with the Under (124.5) connecting.
Wagner is looking to make it back to the NCAA Tournament for just the 2nd time in school history. It lost its only previous appearance to Pittsburgh in 2003, falling 87-61. Merrimack is looking to make its first trip to the Big Dance.
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Wagner at Merrimack odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last Monday updated at 8:21 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Wagner +245 (bet $100 to win $245) | Merrimack -310 (bet $310 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Wagner +6.5 (-102) | Merrimack -6.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 119.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Wagner at Merrimack picks and predictions
Prediction
Merrimack 64, Wagner 61
Moneyline
Merrimack (-310) will cost 3.1 times the potential return. That’s way too expensive considering Wagner (+245) has already proven it can win in North Andover. In fact, it’s a little wacky, but the road team has won and covered each of the previous 5 meetings dating back to Feb. 12, 2022. If anything, Wagner would be worth a roll of the dice.
AVOID.
Against the spread
WAGNER +6.5 (-102) is worth a look catching nearly 6.5 points in this NEC title game.
Again, the road team has covered in 5 in a row, while Wagner has a 5-3 ATS advantage in the past 8 meetings.
The Seahawks wrapped up the regular season with just a single cover in the final 6 games, but it covered both games in the NEC tourney so far, including a stunner over top-seeded Central Connecticut State.
The Warriors have managed to go just 4-6 ATS across their past 10 outings, and again, it lost outright as a 6.5-point favorite to Wagner at home Jan. 19.
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Over/Under
OVER 119.5 (-115) appears to be the best option on the board.
This is an awfully low number, and we saw 136 combined points in the first meeting in North Andover with a total of 122.5 back on Jan. 19.
Wagner has cashed the Under in 5 in a row, and the defense has allowed 57 or fewer points in 4 of the past 5 outings dating back to the regular season. However, Merrimack dropped 71 in the first meeting, and Wagner has averaged a respectable 62.5 points per game against the Warriors in the 2 regular-season meetings.
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