No one in Durham needs to be told who is in town this week.
North Carolina makes the short trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium this week, and the ACC regular-season title and a potential No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament hang in the balance on top of all of the bragging rights and pride these programs always play with.
The Tar Heels spent most of the season as a top-five team in the country, especially when they won their first nine conference games to get off to a start 17-3 to the season. However, a couple of hiccups since have left them closer to 10th than first on most lists as of late.
What exactly caused those midseason slumps? Is there anything Duke can take advantage of? Or is UNC back in top-five form?
Here’s a breakdown of the Tar Heels and their season thus far ahead of Saturday’s massive rivalry game.
North Carolina enters Saturday’s game with a 24-6 record on the season and a 16-3 record against ACC opponents.
Weirdly enough, UNC’s losses came in quick succession. The Tar Heels dropped games to Villanova, Connecticut, and Kentucky in a six-game stretch over the winter, falling from 4-0 to 7-3 despite none of those programs being embarrassing defeats in any way. In fact, Villanova took them down in overtime by two points and Kentucky won by just four.
North Carolina then rattled off a 10-game win streak before three losses in five games to Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Syracuse about a month ago. UNC looked most vulnerable in that early February stretch, with two wins over a struggling Miami team by just seven combined points and the three unranked losses mentioned above.
However, the Tar Heels have since righted the ship with five straight wins, and if there was any doubt about their recent form, they beat Notre Dame by 33 on Tuesday to make sure everyone knew they were ready for Duke.
The Tar Heels are one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation, as one could expect from a consistent top-10 squad all season. However, the strongest bullet point on their reputation comes from the defensive end.
UNC is sixth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing about 0.935 adjusted points per possession. They’re a top-15 team at limiting offensive rebounds, an unsurprising ranking for a team with Armando Bacot in the frontcourt, and they’re allowing an effective field goal percentage of 46%.
The biggest point to circle is how much North Carolina forces players to create their own opportunities. Only 40% of the baskets UNC allowed this season have come from assists, one of the lowest rates in the country. The Tar Heels force players to get themselves open or make contested shots rather than surrendering any catch-and-shoot looks or open men.
They also dominate tempo on the offensive end with one of the shortest average possession lengths in the country. UNC loves to get out and run in transition, and there aren’t many teams in the nation who can keep up with their backcourt at full game speed.
For a team as dominant as North Carolina is on the defensive end, they don’t force many turnovers. They’re 299th in the country in turnover percentage, and they don’t generate steals or force errors very often. Granted, they usually don’t need to with how good their defense is at not surrendering open looks.
However, Duke lost to the Tar Heels by nine points on the road back in February after coughing up 11 turnovers. UNC swarmed the Blue Devils defensively, but a lot of the errors felt unforced, and Duke will have a chance to redeem itself in that department if it can stay focused.
RJ Davis is going to be the ACC Player of the Year and likely an All-American for his season, and he should be. However, few North Carolina players have given Duke players as many fits as forward Armando Bacot.
The 6-foot-11 senior dominated in the last rivalry matchup, dropping a game-high 25 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists. He’s an inch shorter than Duke star Kyle Filipowski, but he continuously out-muscled the Blue Devils big man in the paint to grab boards and force low-percentage looks. The two weren’t matched up all day, either, as Duke tried to double the North Carolina big man and ended up creating open looks for other players.
Duke’s strategy on Bacot will be a key part of how Saturday’s game goes, whether they leave him to Filipowski or try a zone format again. He’ll need to be limited in some capacity, however. The veteran Tar Heel has kept UNC in games through his rebounding for years, and Duke can’t let him give his teammates too many chances.
In case a top-10 matchup between bitter rivals with NCAA Tournament seeding implications wasn’t enough to pique your interest, how about the deciding game for the ACC regular-season title?
If North Carolina (16-3 against conference opponents this season) spoils Duke’s senior night, the Tar Heels claim sole ownership of the conference’s regular-season crown. If the Blue Devils split the season series with a home win, Duke gets to share the title as both teams would end with a 16-4 record in ACC play. The bragging rights would even improve for Duke, who has a better non-conference record so the Blue Devils would have a better overall record for the season with a win.