We saw two entirely different Pac-12 bubble results emerge on Thursday night. One team played its way off the bubble, while another team took a good step forward. Utah ruined its bubble existence by eating a decisive loss at Oregon State, while Colorado secured a vital bubble win by prevailing at Oregon.
Let’s go through these bubble situations and evaluate where the Utes and Buffs stand with just one regular season game left before the Pac-12 Tournament, keeping in mind that other bubble teams across the country are also going to be in action on Saturday and are part of the larger bubble calculus. The bubble is a study in moving parts, which means some wiggle room can exist. However, certain outcomes can carry more weight than others:
A bubble team cannot afford to lose at Oregon State, but that’s exactly what Utah did on Thursday night in Corvallis. Utah still has just one road win in Pac-12 play this year. Winning against Stanford and Cal at home last week merely kept Utah alive. Those wins did not increase Utah’s chances of getting into the NCAA Tournament; they merely prevented Utah from a downward fall on the bubble. The Utes needed to continue to win the games they were supposed to win, but winning was merely going to maintain Utah’s position, not improve it. After losing to Oregon State, Utah has clearly lost at least five or six slots in the bubble pecking order, if not more. It’s a very bad loss at a time when the Utes had very little — if any — margin for error.
Utah goes to Eugene on Saturday to face the Oregon Ducks. This much is clear: Utah has to win that game to stay alive in the bubble conversation. A loss means Utah would have to win the Pac-12 Tournament or — at the very least — reach the final by winning three straight games. We doubt Utah would win four straight in Vegas, so if we’re being realistic, this is Utah’s last best chance. A win wouldn’t put Utah in the field, but it would keep the Utes alive … barely.
We told you days ago that Utah needed three wins to make the NCAA Tournament. It might now be four, but let’s assume Utah does win in Eugene. It would now need at two wins at the Pac-12 Tournament, possibly three. Utah cannot make the NCAA Tournament with merely one win next week in Vegas. The Utes greatly increased their degree of difficulty by losing to Oregon State. Three wins is the absolute minimum right now. Four might be needed.
Oregon isn’t an NCAA Tournament team, but Colorado’s win in Eugene is still a solid win which will move the Buffaloes up a few spots in the bubble pecking order. Colorado is, one would think, in that “last four in or first four out” group right now. Winning at Oregon State on Saturday is essential. If the Buffs do that, they go to Las Vegas knowing that if they can win one game, they will be in the conversation on Selection Sunday. If they win two games in Vegas following a win over Oregon State, they should be in. Given how bleak everything looked for CU a week ago, it would be a Harry Houdini-style escape if they can make March Madness. Now they have a decent chance.
Rick Pitino’s St. John’s Red Storm have surged in the past two weeks, putting themselves in the NCAA Tournament hunt. Colorado could really use a St. John’s loss. However, while some bubble teams have helped themselves, others have not. Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Utah, and Cincinnati have played their way out of the field the past week, so that’s why Colorado still has a decent chance of getting in, provided it can do the job in the coming days. Stay with Buffaloes Wire for complete Colorado coverage.