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The San Diego State Aztecs (22-7, 11-5 Mountain West) and UNLV Rebels (18-10, 11-5) tangle Tuesday in Las Vegas. Tip-off from the Thomas & Mack Center will be at 10 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the San Diego State vs. UNLV odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
San Diego State, ranked No. 19 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, has been off for a week after defeating San Jose State 72-64 last Tuesday, failing to cover as a 22-point home favorite. The MWC’s leading defensive squad — 66 points per game (PPG) allowed — has gone 4-1 while allowing 59.6 PPG over its last 5 contests.
UNLV is also coming off a victory against SJSU; the Rebels covered as 13½-point home favorites in a 68-50 triumph over the Spartans Saturday. Since Feb. 21, Nevada-Las Vegas is 4-0 straight up and against the spread (ATS).
SDSU defeated UNLV 72-61 and covered as an 8.5-point favorite when these MWC foes met Jan. 6.
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San Diego State at UNLV odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: San Diego State -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | UNLV +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread (ATS): San Diego State -1.5 (-110) | UNLV +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 136.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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San Diego State at UNLV picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 72, UNLV 69
Moneyline
SDSU is the lean. The tag here marks an overpayment for a slim advantage in win probability. AVOID.
Against the spread
Since 2022, SDSU is 5-0 straight up and ATS in this series. Over the last 3 meetings, the Aztecs have averaged 76.7 PPG to the Rebels’ 66.3.
San Diego State plays elite defense. KenPom pegs SDSU’s defensive efficiency as 9th in the nation. The Aztecs excel in preventing good looks both inside and along the arc.
UNLV deserves credit; the Rebels are 5-1 ATS in 6 games against Quad 1 talent, according to BartTorvik.com. But figure the Aztecs as having a 3-to-5 point edge in this contest.
BACK SAN DIEGO STATE -1.5 (-110).
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Over/Under
The pace in this one figures to be slow, but this total is 2 points higher than the total listed in the Jan. 6 meeting. Both teams can get out in transition after forcing turnovers, and it figures SDSU can get to the free-throw line quite a few times in this matchup.
Three-point shooting figures — both offensive and defensive — have some regression lean to them favoring a decent night for perimeter shooters.
TAKE THE OVER 136.5 (-110).
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