Most of the conversation surrounding Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones’ proclamation that he will go all-in have centered around free agency. By and large, the Cowboys have done a great job over the Will McClay era of finding high-quality players in the first round of the draft and diamonds in the later rounds. But in free agency, Stephen Jones has been frugal ever since they signed Brandon Carr in 2012.
So when faced with another playoff failure, ownership has indicated this will be the year they put maximum effort into capitalizing on the now instead of having an eye towards the future. Naturally, most assume this means going after the big names, and there’s a laundry list of possibles there. But what if all-in meant using their draft capital to get a ready-made impact payer?
That could come in the form of trading away their pick, or multiple picks, on players. In 2023, Dallas gave up Day 3 picks to acquire CB Stephon Gilmore and WR Brandin Cooks. They could look to use their Day 1 and Day 2 picks in 2024 to acquire even bigger talent. Another option would be to use their draft capital to move up for higher yielding lottery tickets.
The prevalent theory when it comes to draft picks is the more the merrier. Hit rates on prospects are better in the top of the first round, but there’s strength in numbers. With both contributors and stars available through all seven rounds, it makes more sense to have as many picks as possible.
But when it comes to immediate bang for the buck, having the highest possible draft picks could be worth the squeeze, in an all-in campaign.
While each team has their own respective trade value charts — there’s a reason why trades that seem lopsided ever happen, because everyone has their own perspective on the value of each slot — there are three industry standard charts to consider from the outside looking in. The first, known as Jimmy Johnson’s chart based on one of his Dallas staffers efforts in the 1990s, still holds a ton of comparative value when looking at recent trades. Then there’s the Rich Hill model which is uses more recent trade data to reach its values.
Finally, the Fitzgerald-Spielberger model focuses on the spending and financial value aspect of each slot.
Here’s a look at what kind of haul Dallas could expect from various bundles of picks, based on all three charts.