With 14 losses in their last 17 games, the 2023-24 NBA season is increasingly looking like a lost one for the reeling Nets (16-24). That’s potentially very good news for the Houston Rockets, who own Brooklyn’s 2024 first-round draft selection as part of the blockbuster James Harden trade from January 2021.
Entering Thursday, Jan. 18, the Nets were at No. 8 in the NBA’s pre-draft lottery standings, and only a game behind Memphis at No. 6. That would create a 26.3% chance of a top-four lottery selection and a 6% shot at No. 1 overall.
Those probabilities could rise, of course, if the Nets continue their on-court struggles and lose more games.
In turn, that should boost the expected value of that 2024 draft asset to the Rockets and general manager Rafael Stone — who could also potentially dangle that pick as trade bait in the weeks leading up to the NBA’s 2023-24 in-season trade deadline of Thursday, Feb. 8.
Brooklyn just lost… to Portland. They have lost 14 of 17 games and are 16-24, currently the 8th worst team in the league.
That draft pick is looking really good.
— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) January 18, 2024
Though the Rockets (19-21) are likely to lose their own first-round draft pick to Oklahoma City as part of the 2019 Chris Paul-Russell Westbrook trade, it’s worth noting that unlike the Harden-Brooklyn deal, the conveyance of Houston’s pick is top-four protected.
Thus, if the Rockets miss the 2023-24 Western Conference playoffs, they will actually have multiple chances — both with their own pick, and the one from Brooklyn, which they will receive no matter what — at securing a top-four pick in the first round 2024 NBA draft.
And if Houston loses its pick to the Thunder due to not winning the lottery, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the pick they receive from Brooklyn would be higher in the first-round order, anyway.
With that in mind, here’s a look at who draft experts have going to Houston (with the Brooklyn pick) in the latest wave of mock drafts. Keep in mind that the projected pick slot varies based on the exact date of each mock’s publication, since the standings change daily.
The Rockets are also slotted to have three draft selections in the 2024 second round. Further details are available here.