The outlook for Pac-12 men’s basketball is brighter than it was a week ago. Oregon and Arizona State won twice this past week. The Ducks and Sun Devils are playing themselves into the NCAA Tournament conversation, moving toward the bubble after difficult nonconference stretches. Neither Oregon nor ASU had NCAA Tournament-quality resumes in mid-December. Several weeks later, they’re in much better shape, though neither team should feel comfortable about its position. Being 4-0 in the Pac-12 is good. That’s where the Ducks and Devils are. However, one very obvious concern must be raised:
Pac-12 wins against schools other than Arizona might not age well as the season continues.
Let’s note that UCLA is a bottom-rung Pac-12 team. In a normal year, beating UCLA would be a high-end win and a huge resume booster. Not this season. Beating UCLA might contain only slightly more value than beating Cal or Oregon State. The Bruins aren’t an average team. They’re bad. Any team which loses to UCLA will eat a damaging loss on the ledger sheet.
The other key point to make after Oregon won two road games against the Washington schools, and Arizona State swept its Utah-Colorado home stand, is that while Oregon and ASU are rising, Utah and Colorado are falling. Both the Utes and Buffaloes lost twice in the state of Arizona. Utah and CU are both more likely than not to make the NCAA Tournament, but if those two teams lose four out of the next five games, they will lose their leverage and their margin for error.
The Pac-12 could be a five-bid league in March Madness — Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Oregon, ASU — but Utah and Colorado have to regroup while Oregon and ASU continue to improve. If the Utes and Buffs don’t stabilize, the Pac-12 could be a three-bid league. Oregon and ASU might merely replace Utah and Colorado on the list. It wouldn’t be a loss, but it wouldn’t be a net gain, either.
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