The Florida Gators kick off conference play on Saturday against the Kentucky Wildcats, and Gator Nation could be in for an upset.
Despite Kentucky’s top-10 ranking in both major polls, ESPN is projecting Florida to beat UK in the O-Dome. According to the latest projections using the Basketball Power Index (BPI), Florida is a 3.6-point favorite over Kentucky with a 61.9% win probability.
A team’s BPI measures its true strength in the future. It is also the team’s expected point margin against an average opponent on a neutral court. Kentucky is ranked 22nd in the country with a 10.9 BPI and Florida is ranked 28th with a 9.8 rating. Homecourt advantage is the difference here, but the two will play a rematch at the end of the month in Lexington.
ESPN gives the matchup a quality rating of 89.8 (out of 100), which is good for the third-best matchup of the day. Only Clemson–North Carolina and Iowa State-Oklahoma are rated higher. The Clemson-UNC game will compete with Florida-Kentucky for television time, but the SEC matchup should draw a better rating being on ESPN, rather than ESPN2.
Tip-off is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
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