The Washington Commanders received some good news after their 27-10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Not only did the loss move up the Commanders in the 2024 NFL draft order, they moved up one spot from No. 3 to No. 2.
However, the draft order could’ve changed once the Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles game went final. Arizona entered Sunday holding the No. 2 position, with only three wins. Washington and New England were right behind the Cardinals with four wins apiece.
While the 49ers were in the FedEx Field locker room rooting for the Cardinals to win so they could clinch home-field advantage, Washington fans were rooting for the Cardinals to win for draft reasons. Kyler Murray and Arizona pulled off the upset, and, as a result, the Cardinals dropped two spots in the NFL draft order.
Of course, there are many variables that can change the draft order next week. The simplest way for the Commanders to stay at No. 2 is to lose against the Cowboys, and root for a Patriots win over the Jets. If not, the strength of schedule formula comes into play.
ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder’s numbers show that Washington is in an excellent position to finish the season with the No. 2 pick.
Chance to earn No. 2 overall pick in 2024 NFL Draft, per ESPN Analytics
Commanders: 69%
Patriots: 23%
Cardinals: 8%
Giants: <1%Note: does not account for teams potentially resting starters.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 1, 2024
If the Patriots lose and the strength of schedule formula knocks Washington to No. 3, Walder’s model believes it’s virtually a lock that the Commanders pick no lower than No. 3.
Chance to earn a top-3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, per ESPN Analytics
Bears via Panthers: 100%
Commanders: 91%
Patriots: 64%
Cardinals: 39%
Giants: 6%Note: does not account for teams potentially resting starters.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 1, 2024
The Commanders are currently two-touchdown underdogs against the Cowboys in Week 18.