To adapt or not adapt, that is the question. This Shakespearean-like conundrum torments all NFL coaches, but in Week 16 of the NFL season, it’s likely especially applicable to the Cowboys defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn.
On one hand, Quinn has the league’s No. 5 defense (by EPA standards). With depth in the secondary and strength in man coverage, he has a defense built to play nickel personnel, heavy man and single high safety coverage. Based on their ranking, it has served him well.
On the other hand, Quinn is staring down an elite offense in Miami. It’s an offense that’s built to destroy man coverage, spread out defenses, and catch would-be tacklers out of position. It’s an offense that can win a number of ways, which could mean following their season-long trends or following Buffalo’s blueprint that recently embarrassed the Cowboys.
Quinn has a decision to make: Does he A) lean into his team’s strengths and do the same thing he’s done all season with the Cowboys defense? Or does he B) alter his traditional approach and play to the Dolphin’s weaknesses, besting them through strategy?
The answer would be easy if the strengths of the Cowboys defense matched the weaknesses of Miami, but unfortunately, it’s not that simple. Dallas’ favorite coverage this season, by a fairly significant margin, is Cover 1. In this coverage they’ve held opposing passing attacks to -0.21 EPA/play and -10.8% CPOE. Of their top coverages, it’s yielded the lowest yards/attempt, lowest YAC/reception, and the most interceptions.
Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa loves Cover 1 as well. Against it, he’s posted a +0.50 EPA/play and a +4.3% CPOE to go with a gaudy 8/1 touchdown to interception ratio in 2023. The Cowboys love closing off the middle of the field with a safety and playing man coverage on the boundary and Tagovailoa loves playing against it. In the infamous words of my plumber, “something’s gotta give.”
If Quinn decides to scheme to the Dolphin’s weaknesses he can employ Cover 4 or quarters defense. Tagovailoa has been producing positive EPA against all major coverages this season, but he’s generally been at his least effective against quarters. His EPA/play of +0.20 is good and his 77.2% completion percentage is elite, but his damage is far less against this than it is against the other coverages.
Cover 4 is the Cowboys’ fourth most used coverage in 2023. They are holding opponents to -0.05 EPA/play and -11.2% CPOE. They are giving up some deep passes but holding opponents to a 53.3% completion percentage. While the performance between the two teams is significantly different in Cover 4, it’s not as wide of a chasm as it is against Cover 1.
With Tyreek Hill set to play on Sunday, the Cowboys can ill afford to play into the Dolphin’s hands in coverage. Hill is a league leader against man coverage is automatic against press. Cover 1 has extra risk when Hill is on the field. Then again, Cover 4 opens up opportunities underneath and in the running game. The Cowboys can’t afford to gift easy yards again this week either.
The solution is likely a mix of coverages. Coverages that are well-disguised and not according to the typical script. Quinn has been predictable in his coverage in the past and will have to actively work to avoid such transparency in a matchup such as this.
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