Following the Cowboys’ embarrassing 31-10 loss to Buffalo in Week 15, the defense’s run-stopping ability immediately fell under scrutiny. Not only did Buffalo’s top runner James Cook enjoy a career day, but the running game as a whole forced 12 missed tackles on the Dallas run defense.
The Bills dominance on the ground was so significant, their all-star QB, Josh Allen, only needed 15 dropbacks and seven completions to easily secure the victory. It was a display of dominance not seen in quite some time and an indication the same old tired ending might await them in the postseason once again.
Buffalo found that by playing larger personnel groups like 12, 21 and even adding an extra offensive lineman for a jumbo look, the Cowboys would be unable to match up in personnel. And they were essentially right. Based on player tracking, Dallas used 3-2-6 and 4-1-6 personnel on defense 79% of their snaps. In those personnel groups the Cowboys gave up +0.24 EPA/play and +0.21 EPA/play respectively.
The only personnel group worse than Dallas’ light look was their bulkier 4-3-4 group. When the Cowboys answered Buffalo’s big personnel, going light in the secondary and adding more in the front seven, they gave up a staggering +0.53 EPA/play.
Dan Quinn prefers to lean into the strengths of his personnel and it’s easy to see why. Removing a good DB for a LB of far lesser quality is bad business. In the case of Week 15, the Cowboys’ lowest LB on the depth chart, Rashaan Evans, scored the lowest defensive score of the game. His run-stopping grade of 33.1 wasn’t just lower than any DB on the Cowboys, but lower than any single player.
Of course, the alternative to using an extra LB like Evans is allowing the extra lineman to openly bulldoze a defensive back. That’s not exactly an ideal situation either. This dilemma in which we speak is causing many to think of alternative solutions.