Mountain West Championship Game: Keys For A Boise State Victory

Mountain West Championship Game: Keys For A Boise State Victory Can the Broncos win with an interim coach? Follow @MWCwire Boise State travels to UNLV WEEK 12: Boise State Broncos (7-5, 6-2 MW) vs. UNLV Rebels (9-3, 6-2 MW) WHEN: Saturday, December …

Mountain West Championship Game: Keys For A Boise State Victory

Can the Broncos win with an interim coach?

Follow @MWCwire

Boise State travels to UNLV

WEEK 12: Boise State Broncos (7-5, 6-2 MW) vs. UNLV Rebels (9-3, 6-2 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, December 2nd – 1:00 PM MT/12:00 PM PT

WHERE: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: FOX

STREAM: FuboTV — get a free trial

RADIO: The Boise State broadcast can be found on KBOI 670 AM / KTIK 93.1 FM in the Boise area. 

SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the all-time series 8-3, including a 38-13 victory in 2019  in Las Vegas. UNLV’s last win was in Las Vegas in 1976, 31-26.

LAST GAME: Boise State beat Air Force 27-19, while UNLV lost to San Jose State 37-31
ODDS: Boise State -2.5

SP+ PROJECTION: UNLV by 1.0

FEI PROJECTION: Even

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: UNLV 53.87% win probability (29.92-19.79)

When this season kicked off, most that covered college football had Boise State picked to be in the conference championship game. Very few, if any, had UNLV as their opponent and hosting the game. If you look back to just four weeks ago, it looked to be Fresno State’s for the taking after defeating Boise State and UNLV in back-to-back weeks and leaving Boise State reeling as the goal shifted from a championship to hopefully being above .500. 

UNLV responded by rolling New Mexico and Wyoming, coming back to beat Air Force, before falling to SJSU in the final week of the season.  Boise State beat New Mexico and Air Force while taking it to Utah State in that stretch.  Oh, and the Broncos fired Andy Avalos after the New Mexico win in a surprise move for Athletic Director Jeremiah Dickey. Interim Coach Spencer Danielson looks to be the first interim coach to win a conference title game in NCAA history.

Keys To Victory

Dance With Who Brought You

With running backs like Ashton Jeanty and George Holani, as well as the mobility of QB Taylen Green, the Broncos had the second-best rushing offense in the Mountain West this season behind Air Force.

Jeanty won the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year with 1,113 yards and 13 touchdowns, in addition to 537 yards receiving and five touchdowns, with Green and Holani adding another 878 yards on the ground and 12 touchdowns combined. UNLV does have a good run defense, but the Broncos ran well against Air Force and Wyoming, who both finished better against the run than UNLV.  The running game needs to set the tone for the game, not just for the physicality but for the big play ability to keep pressure on the Rebel defense.

Keep The Top On the Pass Defense

Boise State has improved dramatically in the latter part of the season against the pass, which is misleading. Two of the last three games have been against New Mexico and Air Force, which is helpful, but the Bronco secondary held up well against Utah State, who finished fourth in passing. A big part of that has been due to the defensive line creating much more pressure on the quarterback. 

Defensive lineman Ahmed Hassanein has been wreaking havoc and racked up 12 sacks on the season, along with linebacker Andrew Simpson, who also has 15 tackles for loss.  While UNLV is a run-first team, they have a dangerous quarterback-receiver combination of Jayden Maiava and Ricky White.

White averages over 17 yards a catch and has seven touchdowns on the season, so he is familiar with getting loose in opponents’ secondary.  If the pass rush can keep Maiava from getting comfortable, Boise State should be able to keep the Rebel running game in check.

Focus!!!

There has been a lot of news and speculation going around the program regarding the search for their new head coach.  Many players want interim head coach Spencer Danielson to be the next coach, which has led to a renewed passion for the program.  This may lead to players being too excited for a game that appeared out of reach a few weeks ago, and while they should be excited for the opportunity, they have to play within themselves to avoid costly mistakes. 

UNLV has forced the most turnovers in the Mountain West this season and will be looking to capitalize on every mistake made. One clear advantage the Broncos will have is that they have been here before.  This game is the Broncos 4th title game in the last five years, so most of the team knows how to handle the game. At the same time, this is UNLV’s first winning season since 2013, let alone a championship game, so they will have to figure out how to win a big game on the fly.

Prediction:

Regardless of the outcome, this season has turned out better than most fans thought it would three weeks ago.  That said, the Bronco defense turnaround should help Boise State outlast the UNLV Rebels 36-24.

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