A year ago, the USC Trojans were one game away from the College Football Playoff thanks to the efforts of quarterback Caleb Williams.
The sophomore quarterback won the Heisman Trophy with 544 first-place votes, more than notable champions like Johnny Manziel, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray. He was seen as the consensus top draft pick, a prospect NFL teams should tank for next season when he was eligible.
If USC had beaten Utah in the 2022 Pac-12 Championship Game, a game they lost 47-24 while Williams threw for 363 yards and three touchdowns while battling injury, the Trojans would have been in the national title hunt.
In the 2023 season, the Trojans have lost three of their last four games to slide to 7-3, already tripling their losses from last regular season. Because of his prominence and a particularly brutal three-interception game in primetime against Notre Dame, the largest portion of the blame seems to indicate that Williams has taken a step back, with some social media buzz about whether he’s even worth the No. 1 pick anymore. If you look at Williams’ numbers, however, you’ll realize rumors of his regression are greatly exaggerated.
The Trojans quarterback leads the nation with 28 passing touchdowns in 10 games. He’s thrown for 2,958 yards while averaging 9.5 yards an attempt, the eighth-best mark in the FBS. He’s also only thrown one interception outside of that fateful game against the Fighting Irish.
For context, Washington Huskies quarterback and current Heisman favorite Michael Penix Jr. has two fewer touchdowns and three more interceptions than Williams despite having thrown nine more passes this season.
In fact, let’s take a look at how Williams compares to his own Heisman season through 10 games.
| Completions | Attempts | Comp. % | Passing Yards | Yards/Att. | Pass TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs | |
| 2022 | 218 | 342 | 63.7% | 3,010 | 8.8 | 31 | 2 | 283 | 6 |
| 2023 | 216 | 312 | 69.2% | 2,958 | 9.5 | 28 | 4 | 173 | 10 |
The Trojans superstar has a significantly higher completion percentage, a higher average yards per attempt, and one more total touchdown through 10 games than last year when he was the shoo-in Heisman.
Even when you view the offense as a whole, USC is second in the country right now at 45.5 points per game. The Trojans averaged 42.4 points per game through 10 games last year.
Let’s dive into those three losses, then. Did Williams let his team down? Well, the USC offense scored 20, 32, and 42 points in the teams’s three defeats this season, and Williams threw for 767 yards on 106 attempts, scoring four touchdowns and throwing three interceptions across the three games.
There’s a downturn in efficiency there for sure, but his 255.7 yards per game and 7.2 yards per attempt would still rank 39th and 65th in the FBS. So even if you look at his losses and only his losses, he’s still comfortably among the top half of college quarterbacks.
The true culprit of this losing streak is the Trojans defense. USC has allowed at least 41 points in five of its past six games. Over the past two seasons, Williams is 3-3 as a starter if his offense scores less than 40 points. Only seven offenses in the country average 40 points per game. There’s immense pressure on the junior quarterback knowing he has to reach that benchmark every week, and he’s answering it better than you might think.
Get more USC coverage at Trojans Wire.