The Green Bay Packers have a multi-layered problem with contested catches in the passing game.
Let’s start with a definition: A contested catch situation in one in which a quarterback throws a catchable pass to a receiver who is closely guarded by a defender who can “contest” the catch. Not all passes are to wide open receivers. Sometimes, a quarterback has to throw a ball into a tight window and hope the targeted receiver can make the play against tight coverage.
Next, the numbers: The Packers have completed only 9-of-43 contested catch opportunities this season, including a 0-for-7 showing during Sunday’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Their conversion rate on contested catches is 20.9 percent.
Now, some context: Last season, the Packers converted 38 of 79 contested catch opportunities, or 48.1 percent. In 2021, they connected on 36 of 83 (46.9). In 2020, they hit 27 of 63 (42.8). Overall, the league-wide conversion rate on contested catches looks to be around 40 percent this season.
Coach Matt LaFleur said the Packers must have a “my ball” mentality when the ball is in the air.
“We have that expectation and we need that mentality that when the ball is in the air, it’s our ball,” LaFleur said Monday.
Going to get the ball has been an issue all year for the young Packers offense. The problem only magnified on Sunday.
Christian Watson was 0-for-3 on contested catches vs. the Vikings. Romeo Doubs was 0-for-2. Luke Musgrave was 0-for-1. Jayden Reed was 0-for-1.
Watson and Doubs had chances to go make big plays for Jordan Love but couldn’t. Musgrave’s miss came on third down in the first quarter, leading to a three-and-out. Reed’s miss — on a ball down the seam in the third quarter — turned into a game-changing interception. LaFleur said Reed’s miss was a throw that needs to be completed.
Receivers must be better attacking the ball in the air. On contested catches this season, Watson is 0-for-8, Reed is 0-for-7, Doubs is 5-for-13, Samori Toure is 1-for-4, Dontayvion Wicks is 1-for-3, Musgrave is 1-for-3, Malik Heath is 0-for-3, Patrick Taylor is 0-for-1 and Josiah Deguara is 1-for-1.
Watson is almost 6-5 in height, has elite athleticism and was 9-for-12 on contested catches last year. Reed is smaller but the Packers saw him make contested catch after contested catch at Michigan State. Doubs’ hands have looked like magnets on some throws and bricks on others.
No team wants to rely heavily on contested catches. Top passing games are designed to scheme open receivers and create easy completions to all parts of the field. One problem for the Packers is the rate of contested catch opportunities, which suggests receivers aren’t getting open on time, or Love is late getting the ball to open receivers, or some combination of the two.
Also, Love’s accuracy has been an issue all season. Part of the reason is failed chances on contested catches by pass-catchers. Another is ball placement, which magnifies the difficulty of a contested catch or turns an easy catch into a contested opportunity. If the Packers were making contested catches at a rate similar to last season, Love’s completion percentage would be well over 60 percent. But again, not all contested catches are created equal and the Packers need both better execution by everyone involved in the passing game.
This is a problem with many layers. The Packers need more easy completions, and the Packers need more conversions when coverage is tight. While Love must be better, the first-year starting quarterback also needs his receivers to start making more plays.