Entering Week 8 of the college football season, North Carolina was on cloud nine. Drake Maye looked like a lottery pick. They led the conference in interceptions. Edge rusher Kaimon Rucker looked like an all-conference player. They won each of their previous four games by multiple scores, including a 41-31 win over then-ranked Miami. They had Virginia, who was 1-5 and winless in the ACC, coming into their stadium for another chance to show off, but all eyes were on Duke and a potential date with Florida State in the conference championship.
Instead, the Cavaliers walked out with a stunning 31-27 victory, and the Tar Heels saw their playoff hopes go up in smoke.
If you weren’t watching the CW Network on Saturday (because who could blame you), there’s only one question to ask. What in the world happened in Chapel Hill?
It gets even weirder when you first dive into the stats. The Tar Heels outgained the Cavaliers, 490-436, which is to be expected. This was the best offense in the conference against one of the four worst.
So surely UNC lost the turnover battle, right? Actually, Drake Maye’s interception on the last-gasp drive at the end was the first time the Tar Heels coughed up the ball all game. Maye averaged more than 7 yards per attempt, star running back Omarion Hampton averaged 5.9 yards per carry, star receiver Tez Walker had 146 yards through the air. Where did it all go wrong?
When you check the team stats, there’s an easy culprit that stands out: third and fourth downs.
The Tar Heels entered the game with conversions on 48 of their 91 third-down efforts (52.7%). For reference, that mark would currently be the seventh-best in the nation. The Cavaliers entered the game only converting 30 of their 85 chances, a measly 35.2% that would currently sit 100th in the country.
True to the spooky nature of October, the two teams swapped bodies on money downs. The Tar Heels converted just four of their 13 attempts on Saturday (30.8%), while Virginia moved the chains eight times in 18 tries (44.4%). The Cavaliers actually converted seven of their final 12 chances. They had eight third downs between 5 and 8 yards to go and converted half of them.
Both teams went for it on fourth down multiple times, too, and the stunning trend continued. UVA converted on two of three fourth-down attempts, including a 22-yard gain on fourth and 2 on the Cavaliers’ first drive of the game.
The Tar Heels came up empty on both of their fourth-down tries, including one on the UVA 20-yard-line with three minutes left when Walker looked baffled that he wasn’t awarded a flag after a lot of contact on his route. In the second quarter, they failed to convert a fourth and 6 right near midfield on a Maye incompletion. That four-play sequence consisted of three straight Maye incompletions, a quarterback who is completing 65% of his passes this season.
North Carolina couldn’t capitalize on any of the Cavaliers’ mistakes, either. Virginia had an interception, a fumble, and a turnover on downs on Saturday. UNC only scored on one of the ensuing three drives.
All in all, statistics seem to indicate there was some ugly variance at play in Chapel Hill on Saturday. The Tar Heels offense probably won’t have a third-down performance quite like that again this season. But it only needed to happen once.
For more North Carolina coverage, go to Tarheels Wire.