Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds, picks and predictions

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The Atlanta Falcons (3-3) face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) Sunday in an NFC South clash. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Atlanta has now lost 3 of its last 4 since starting out 2-0. The Falcons’ most recent loss came in a 24-16 outing last Sunday vs. the Washington Commanders, failing to cover as 1-point favorites. QB Desmond Ridder had his worst game of the season, completing 28 of his 47 passes for 307 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs.

Tampa Bay lost 20-6 last Sunday vs. the Detroit Lions, failing to cover as a 3-point underdog. The Buccaneers struggled to generate any offense as they only produced 251 yards of total offense, 205 of which came through the air. Tampa Bay has generated the 3rd-least offensive yards on the season (1,457) and only averages 291.4 yards per game, good for 8th-worst.

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Falcons at Buccaneers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:15 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Falcons +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Buccaneers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Falcons +2.5 (-110) | Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 37 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Falcons at Buccaneers key injuries

Falcons

None

Buccaneers

LB Anthony Nelson (concussion) out
DT Vita Vea (foot) questionable

Falcons at Buccaneers picks and predictions

Prediction

Buccaneers 19, Falcons 16

Moneyline

BET BUCCANEERS (-145).

Tampa Bay is the slightly better team here and has the advantage as this Falcons squad has yet to win a road game on the year. Ridder has thrown for 300+ yards in each of the last 2 games, but I don’t expect him to see the same success here. This will be a game where neither team will be able to run the ball well, and that gives the Buccaneers an advantage as they are more of a pass-heavy team anyway. Look for the WR duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to torch this Falcons secondary.

Against the spread

LEAN BUCCANEERS -2.5 (-110).

I like this game to be close as most divisional games are, but the Buccaneers have a big turnover advantage that will lead to them being able to cover. Tampa Bay has a turnover differential of +6 while the Falcons’ is -6. The key to beating the Falcons to this point in the season has been forcing Ridder to turn the ball over as 5 of his 6 interceptions were thrown in losses. Look for Tampa’s defense to force Ridder into uncomfortable positions that will lead to interceptions and short-field opportunities for the Buccaneers’ offense.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 37 (-105).

This is your riskiest play for this game.

Both Tampa Bay and Atlanta have struggled on offense this year, but both also have bad defenses. In games where the Falcons score 20+ they seem to win, being 3-0 in such games, but they will likely have difficulty scoring on this Tampa Bay defense. Tampa’s defense will be able to shut down Robinson and this Falcons run game as it only allows 83.8 opposing rushing yards per game. Expect this to be a field-goal-heavy game that will see both teams turn the ball over.

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