The NFL had a rash of injuries to quarterbacks last week, so let’s hope that’s just an aberration and not the start of even more players getting hurt. The scoring has been down overall, and the incidence of monster performances by fantasy players have also declined. That makes for less fantasy points to go around, and yet amplifies the impact for when a player can log multiple touchdowns or pile up the yardage.
One of the more important facets of Week 7 is that the looming trade deadline is 4 p.m.. on October 31st. – the Tuesday following the Week 8 games. We saw a number of trades last season and it feels like that will repeat, since several top-record teams still have glaring holes to fill if they want to do anything in January.
To start, let’s look at why waiting in defenses and kickers may seem hard for some, but it is reasonable. And kickers are the worst.
- How we did on fantasy defenses – The Top-5 are the difference makers and in a position that is typically the lowest scoring in most fantasy leagues, anything beyond those first five are not that different – usually a point or two per game overall. Here are how the Average Draft Position (ADP) shook out against the current Points Per Game (PPG) for the defense.
The Cowboys and Bills were the only two that have delivered so far, the Cowboys are starting to fall after the effect of their first three weeks starts to be watered down. Three of the Top-8 have delivered so far, but teams that reached for the 49ers a few rounds earlier than the rest should regret spending too much. That’s almost always the case for the first defense drafted each year.
- How we did on fantasy kickers –
Okay, so look at the above table – only Harrison Butker paid off commensurate with where he was taken. Those first four kickers taken in the Average Draft didn’t deliver as a fantasy starter, let alone yield any advantage. The Top-4 in current points-per-game were Jake Elliot taken as the 11th kicker drafted, and three other guys who were not drafted in most fantasy leagues.
- WR Mecole Hardman (KC) – The Chiefs swapped late round picks to bring Hardman back to Kansas City after logging just one catch for the Jets this year. Here’s what he did in the four seasons with the Chiefs:
So the question is if Hardman can do what no other Chiefs’ wideout has this year – matter. As in provide consistent fantasy relevant stats. Hardman provided about 600 yards each season, though through 2021 Tyreek Hill was there, and Hardman had a season-ending groin tear in 2022. He’s only gained 100 yards in one game, but he should provide something has been missing – touchdowns. The Chiefs wideout combine for only four touchdowns in their six games but last year, Hardman alone scored four times in the first eight games prior to injury, including in all three of his final games. It is something to watch for because the Chiefs need to improve passing touchdowns.
- TE Michael Mayer (LV) – The Raiders spent their 2.03 pick on the receiving tight end that led all Notre Dame receivers last year. At 6-5, 249-pounds and running a 4.7 40-time, Mayer has all the marks of an elite NFL tight end. He’s one to watch with the Raiders that have taken to spreading the ball around more (to the displeasure of Davante Adams) and Mayer led the team last week with five catches for 75 yards against the Patriots. His involvement at the Bears should indicate if he is ready for a bigger role or if last week was just the product of a specific matchup.
- WR Darnell Mooney (CHI) – The trade deadline is nearing, and Mooney getting traded seems like an ideal situation. The Bears have found their No. 1 wideout with DJ Moore, and the season is already over at 1-5. They can get draft capital for a player who hasn’t used much but who had a 1,000-yard season in 2021 and can offer a speedy field stretcher. And Mooney’s career has already peaked in Chicago, so a change in team can only be a positive.
- RB Derrick Henry (TEN) – The Titans’ long-time star running back is likely heading into free agency next spring and he turns 30 in January. The 2-4 Titans could get something for him in a trade and look like a team heading into a rebuilding mode next year, even if HC Mike Vrabel reaches his sixth season. The Buccaneers lead the NFC South and yet rank No. 32 in running backs. It would take a top team to be interested in a “win now at all costs” sort of deal, and Tampa Bay is the only such team that needs an upgrade in the backfield. The Ravens could be argued as needing one as well, but they’ve slogged along with a mediocre backfield for several years.
About last night…
Jacksonville 31, New Orleans 24
The game was a slow affair for the first half that ended 17-6 thanks to two rushing scores by Travis Etienne. It seemed to be another low-scoring and sloppy Thursday night contest. But the Saints came back to tie it 24-24 with six minutes left to play, even compensating for a pick-six in the third quarter. But Christian Kirk turned a short catch into a 44-yard touchdown with three minutes left to play, and the Saints marched down the field to reach the Jacksonville 6-yard line with 40 seconds left to play. Derek Carr threw four incompletions, one catchable in the end zone to Foster Moreau.
Trevor Lawrence passed for 204 yards and one touchdown thanks greatly to Christian Kirk’s (6-90, TD) 44-yard catch and run for a score. Evan Engram totaled five catches for 45 yards as the next best receiver while Calvin Ridley yet again flopped with only one catch for five yards. Lawrence may have been questionable with a sprained knee, but he led the Jags with 59 yards on eight rushes. Travis Etienne ran for 53 yards on 14 runs with the two scores, and caught three passes for 24 more yards. The 5-2 Jaguars maintain their lead in the AFC South and head to Pittsburgh for Week 8.
Derek Carr threw for 301 yards and a score but it took 55 passes. Alvin Kamara led with 12 receptions for 91 yards and Chris Olave turned a team-high 15 targets into seven catches for 57 yards. Michael Thomas (3-42, TD) caught the rare touchdown. Kamara also ran for 62 yards on 17 carries for a total of 31 plays in the game. Taysom Hill ran for a score while Jamaal Williams (5-14) finally got back to the field. The loss drops the Saints to 3-4 and they play at the Colts next week.