Let’s preface this by saying the Los Angeles Rams are not trading Puka Nacua. Or Matthew Stafford. Or Cooper Kupp. Or Aaron Donald.
But, if they were to move any of those players, which one would have the most value on the trade market? Logically, you might think Stafford, being an above-average quarterback, which can be tough to find.
But ESPN’s Bill Barnwell says Nacua has more trade value than both Stafford and Kupp. He ranked players from each team into tiers based on their trade value and what they might yield in a hypothetical deal. Barnwell put Nacua and Donald in the category of being worth “one first-round pick and change,” whereas Kupp and Stafford are each worth “one first-round pick.”
Donald is obviously worth at least a first-round pick, even on a contract that’s only through next season, but Barnwell explains why Nacua is worth a first and more, too.
Nacua is a fascinating case and the only Day 3 rookie I’m comfortable moving into the first-round tier. The fifth-round pick clearly wasn’t seen as a top talent by teams, and he’s moving into a lesser role with Cooper Kupp taking back over as the WR1. He also racked up more receiving yards than any player in NFL history through their first four games. That has to count for something, right?
What seals it for me is the contract value. Nacua is in Year 1 of a four-year, $4.1 million deal. Even if he ends up settling in as a solid WR2 in a good offense, players like that are landing about $14 million per season, and that’s only going to keep rising. He could be worth more than $50 million in surplus value over the next four years, and that’s more than a team can expect for most first-round picks. And if Nacua really is a WR1, well …
It’s a testament to just how good Nacua has been that Barnwell thinks a team would trade a first-round pick and more for a fifth-round rookie who’s just six games into his career. Whether a team would actually do that is unclear, but teams are certainly feeling like they missed out on a draft steal by letting the BYU product slip all the way to the fifth round.
As for why Stafford and Kupp are “only” worth a first-rounder, Barnwell says Stafford is 35 and has a “laundry list of injuries” that he’s dealt with in recent years, though he “has looked like a top-12 quarterback this season.” Kupp will be 30 in June and has also suffered several injuries, “but his production when healthy over the past three seasons has been astronomical.”
Again, the Rams aren’t going to trade any of these four players, but to have four players who are worth at least a first-round pick is pretty impressive, especially given the teardown they went through this offseason.