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The New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces meet Sunday for Game 1 of their WNBA Finals best-of-5 playoff matchup. Tip-off from Michelob Ultra Arena at Mandalay Bay is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Liberty vs. Aces Game 1 odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
The Liberty and Aces produced the 2 best records in the regular season, so it’s no real surprise these teams meet for all of the WNBA marbles.
New York was a thorn in the side of Las Vegas this season, with the teams splitting 4 regular-season battles, while the Liberty also won 82-63 on the floor of the Aces to take the Commissioner’s Cup Aug. 15. The home team was 4-0 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in the 4 regular-season meetings.
The Liberty was tripped up in 78-63 in Game 1 of the WNBA semi-final round against the Connecticut Sun. It quickly rectified the situation, rattling off 3 straight wins, while scoring 84 or more points. The Over has cashed in 3 in a row, and 5 of 6 playoff games overall. However, the Lib is just 1-4 ATS in the past 5 playoff games.
The Aces have an unblemished 5-0 SU record in these playoffs, although Las Vegas failed to cover the past 2 contests in its 3-game sweep of the Dallas Wings in the semis. Vegas is 3-2 ATS in the postseason, with the Under going 3-1-1.
Aces C A’ja Wilson leads the team with 25.8 points per game (PPG) and 11.2 rebounds per game (RPG) in 5 postseason games, hitting 59.5% from the floor. Gs Chelsea Gray and Kelsey Plum are each 2nd with 16.0 PPG.
Liberty F Breanna Stewart leads the way with 19.8 PPG and 9.0 RPG in the postseason, while posting 2.8 blocked shots per game (BPG) in 6 outings. New York also sports 4 players averaging better than 16.3 PPG, including G Sabrina Ionescu, who has shot just 43.2% from the field in the postseason.
Game 1: Liberty at Aces odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Liberty +172 (bet $100 to win $172) | Aces -215 (bet $215 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Liberty +4.5 (-105) | Aces -4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 171.5 (O: -111 | U: -115)
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Game 1: Liberty at Aces picks and predictions
Prediction
Aces 92, Liberty 85
Moneyline
The Aces (-215) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return. With the way the Liberty (+172) have played them so tough this season, that’s a risky proposition. Look to the spread instead.
AVOID.
Against the spread
The ACES -4.5 (-115) are the play in the series opener, but be cautious. The Liberty +4.5 (-105) won on this floor in the Commissioner’s Cup in a high-stakes game, and New York was 3-2 SU/ATS in 5 meetings overall since the start of the season.
However, I don’t like how the Liberty started their series against the Sun, faltering in Game 1. The Aces are on their home floor and should hit blackjack in the series opener.
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Over/Under
The OVER 171.5 (-111) is the lean, but again, err on the side of caution and don’t get too carried away.
These teams split 1-1 on the Over-Under in each regular-season home game, and the Under cashed in the Commissioner’s Cup game in mid-August in Vegas, too.
However, the Over is the lean based on the offensive performances of both teams overall, and the Liberty will look to run early.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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