Through the first four weeks of the 2023 season, the Dallas Cowboys have more opportunities in the red zone than just about any other offense. They have 19 drives inside the opposing 20-yard line, and they’ve converted just seven of those drives into touchdowns. The Buffalo Bills also have 19 red zone drives this season, and they’ve converted 13 of them into touchdowns. Dallas’ 36.8% red zone conversion rate is the NFL’s third-worst, behind only the New Orleans Saints and the Houston Texans.
Per FTN (formerly Football Outsiders), Mike McCarthy’s offense ranks first in plays per drive (7.74) and third in scores per drive (0.55), but Dallas ranks first in field goals per red zone trip (0.34), and 30th in touchdowns per red zone trip (0.37). Overall, the Cowboys are 24th in points per red zone trip (4.21), which makes sense when you’re exchanging all those potential touchdowns for other things.
Per Sports Info Solutions, Dak Prescott has the NFL’s most dropbacks (34), attempts (32), and completions (16) in the red zone, and he’s thrown three touchdowns in that area to one interception. But his red zone EPA of -12.77 is the NFL’s third worst, behind Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers and Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings.
Running back Tony Pollard has more red zone attempts (27) than any other back in the league this season, but his red zone EPA of -2.56 is the NFL’s fourth-worst among players at his position, and he has just two red zone rushing touchdowns. Each of the four backs behind Pollard in red zone carries (Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers, David Montgomery of the Detroit Lions, Kenneth Walker III of the Seattle Seahawks, and Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams) have five rushing touchdowns for their fewer chances.
Receivers CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup are first and second in the NFL with 29 and 27 red zone routes run, respectively, but they have just one red zone reception between them for three yards and no touchdowns.
Dallas’ three red zone touchdown receptions have come from tight ends Jake Ferguson and Luke Schoonmaker, and running back Rico Dowdle.
This is a global problem for America’s team, and while everyone from Jerry Jones to Mike McCarthy to Dak Prescott has commented on the issue, there doesn’t seem to be any obvious fix in the works. Not what you want when you have to face the 49ers’ defense this Sunday night.
In this week’s episode of “The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” Greg (of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup) and Doug (of Touchdown Wire) got into these issues based on their tape study and metric analysis.
You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:
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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…
…and on Apple Podcasts.
Now, let’s dive into why the Cowboys are failing in the red zone… and how they can fix it.