Going into Week 5, the College Football Playoff picture is looking awfully murky, setting the sport up for some particularly heated debates if this keeps up. Bring it on.
With Ohio State leading the way still, there are seven college football teams with at least a 30 percent chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor formula as of Friday. After holding off Notre Dame for a Week 4 win, the Buckeyes’ playoff chances saw a small boost to 60.3 percent, up from 57.7 percent last week. But they’re still comfortably at the top.
There was some notable movement among last week’s teams with the best playoff chances, with Oklahoma’s dipping 2.6 percent, while Texas’ chances got a 9.4 percent boost. However, both teams are still among the top four.
But Penn State and Oregon saw two of the biggest jumps in College Football Playoff chances since last week. They were seventh and eighth, respectively, on last week’s list and are now pretty close to breaking into the top-4 teams with the best playoff chances.
Overall, only one team among those with the top-10 playoff chances, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, has a loss: 3-1 Alabama. Everyone else is looking good at 4-0.
The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the Football Power Index.
Here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Friday.