NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 3

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There are some weeks when having home-field advantage plays a role in the outcome of games. When the fan base is energized, it often has a ripple effect on the field and the sidelines.

This week we pick 5 players who will be enjoying home cookin’ and looking to make some noise, including an unheralded running back to score a touchdown, a running back who should be able to surpass his rushing projection and 2 of the league’s most dynamic receivers having huge days. We also let recent history be our guide as to why an elite young quarterback won’t hit his number to beat.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 3 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:12 a.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill OVER 85.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Broncos, 1 p.m. (CBS)

This goes against Hill’s career history because nobody held him down as a member of the Chiefs more than the Broncos. But this Miami offense finds ways to get Hill open in space, especially when he’s coming off a sub-par game.

Last season, Hill was held under 75 yards in 5 games before QB Tua Tagovailoa went down for the 2nd time in Week 16. In the games after Hill was limited, he blew up — posting receiving days of 160, 177, 188, 85 and 106 yards. Last week he was limited to 40 receiving yards.

Look for a big bounce-back game here against the Broncos.

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Commanders RB Brian Robinson SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+120)

– Host Bills, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Sometimes you look for players who appear to be the only show in town. Robinson has become that in the Commanders backfield.

So far this season, Robinson has 37 carries and 2 touchdowns. Washington’s other running backs have combined for just 8 carries. The Bills defense isn’t a pushover, but it can be had on the ground.

Plus, when the Commanders get close to the end zone, it’s Robinson Time.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 101.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Chargers, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Jefferson has become to Minnesota’s offense what WR Cooper Kupp was to the Rams offense a couple of years ago. Kupp strung together so many impressive games that his Over/Under prop number had to go above 100 yards just to get people to bet the Under. Jefferson has taken over that mantle.

In his first 2 games, Jefferson has hit 150 receiving yards in both. Those came against much better defenses (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles) than the Chargers have. The Vikings find ways to target Jefferson even when a defense attempts to bracket him with double coverage.

Until somebody finds a way to take Jefferson away from the Vikings offense, he can be expected to catch 8 or more passes a game consistently, which makes getting 102 yards a lot easier.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence UNDER 245.5 passing yards (-115)

– Host Texans, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Many are of the belief that the Texans are a dismal team because their record has been brutal ever since the QB Deshaun Watson era derailed. However, the Texans defense is quietly getting the job done and showing improvement, but Lawrence already knows this.

Lawrence has been held to 210 passing yards or less in 2 of this last three meetings with the Texans and Houston has allowed just 398 passing yards in its first two games.

Lawrence is clearly capable of hitting over this number, but the Texans haven’t shown any reason to expect it.

Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-115)

– Host Panthers, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Walker hasn’t been lighting up the league so far this season, but he has 29 of Seattle’s 39 running back carries this season.

The Panthers have allowed 264 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns through 2 games and have struggled to force teams to go away from the run. Opponents are averaging 30 carries a game and, under the current ratio, Walker should get about 20 of those. If he does, it will be hard to keep him below this number.

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