What does ESPN’s matchup predictor, FPI say about Iowa-Penn State?

What does ESPN’s matchup predictor say about Iowa at Penn State? Where are the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions in ESPN’s FPI rankings?

One of the marquee matchups of the weekend sees the No. 22 Iowa Hawkeyes traveling to Happy Valley to take on the No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions. The Big Ten heavyweight fight is expected to be a slugfest and could see some wet weather.

Ahead of the matchup, ESPN has an updated Football Power Index and this will be a look into the Hawkeyes’ FPI, the Nittany Lions’ FPI, and a glance at what ESPN thinks the Hawkeyes will do the rest of the season. Before getting into it, here is a quick note on what ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) means.

FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.

It is important to note what FPI is not — FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. – ESPN