Texas State Vs Nevada: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
Nevada hits the road to take on Texas State as the Wolf Pack look to snap a 13 game losing streak.
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Nevada Heads Out To The Lone Star State To Take On Texas State
WEEK 4: Nevada Wolf Pack (0-3) vs Texas State Bobcats (2-1)
WHEN: Saturday, September 23rd- 4:00pm PT/3:00pm MT
WHERE: Bobcat Stadium-San Marcos, Texas (Capacity:30,000)
TV: ESPN+ Click here to sign on for a free trial
RADIO: Nevada is on 105.7 KOZZ in Reno and Texas State KTSW 89.9 in San Marcos.
SERIES RECORD: Nevada leads series 1-0. The last meeting between Nevada and Texas State was in 2022 when Nevada won 38-14.
WEBSITES: NevadaWolfPack.com, the official Nevada athletics website | txst.com, the official Texas State athletics website.
ODDS: Texas State (-17)
SP+ PROJECTION: Texas State by 10.8
FEI PROJECTION: Texas State by 6.2
The Nevada Wolf Pack will hit the road as they will face off against the Texas State Bobcats on Saturday.
The Wolf Pack currently hold the nation’s longest losing streak at 13 games. That streak was extended last Saturday when Nevada dropped a close one to Kansas 31-24. Nevada put up a good, hard fought effort but it was not enough as the Jayhawks made the big plays at the right time to secure the win.
The Wolf Pack are taking on a Texas State team that is much improved under new head coach G.J. Kinne. Kinne, who coached at Incarnate Word last year and led the Cardinals to a win in Reno over Nevada last season, has the Bobcats as one of the best offenses in FBS. The Bobcats are 2-1 and coming off an impressive 77-34 win over Jackson State last week.
The Bobcats have already recorded one of the biggest upset victories of the season when they went into Waco, Texas and defeated Baylor in Week 1. The Texas State offense can score points as they are averaging 44.0 points per game so far this season.
This is another explosive offense that will once again test the Wolf Pack defense. So far this season, Nevada has had a hard time trying to corral teams with very talented offenses.
Can the Wolf Pack go into Texas and slow down the Bobcat offense ? Can the Wolf Pack play well like they did last week and finally snap that long losing streak?
Here are my keys and a prediction for Nevada-Texas State:
Keep that same (positive) energy from last week
Despite losing for the 13th straight time last week, the Wolf Pack showed resilience and fight in their loss to Kansas.
The performance against Kansas was a clear contrast to that pathetic, dreadful performance Nevada displayed against Idaho two weeks ago. The Nevada team that took the field against Kansas was a team that played well enough to win but just fell short.
Coach Ken Wilson said it best after the game against Kansas: “ That was a great effort by those men in the locker room. “We’re going to win those games (down the road)”
For Nevada to win on Saturday on the road, they will need to bring that maximum effort and fight because this is a much improved Texas State team. The Wolf Pack can’t half-ass it, they must bring it all if they want to win.
Improve the pass defense, now
The Nevada pass defense has been horrendous after three weeks of action. To be fair, the Wolf Pack have faced three talented passing offenses in USC, Idaho and Kansas so it was going to be a struggle. However, Nevada’s pass defense still needs to find a way to play much better in order to win. Looking at the numbers, the Wolf Pack are 130th in passing defense as they are giving up an average of 354.7 passing yards per game.
Here are some other defensive passing stats that will make Nevada fans recoil in horror: Nevada is 131st in the nation in opposing completion percentage as they are giving up a competition percentage of 74.4 percent. Also, Nevada is dead last in the nation in opposing pass yards per attempt as they are giving up 13.0 passing yards per attempt.
Those numbers in regard to Nevada’s passing defense after three games are shockingly bad. And guess what, Nevada will be facing another explosive pass offense in Texas State and a talented QB in TJ Finley. Finley’s numbers have been impressive so far this season as he has thrown for 760 yards and six touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Nevada’s pass defense will need to play a hell of a lot better if they are going to win on Saturday. It will not be easy because it is another talented pass heavy offense the Wolf Pack will be facing. However, Nevada must find a way to improve their pass defense so they have a chance of snapping their 13 game losing streak.
Exploit Texas State’s poor pass defense
After three games, Texas State has a very talented offense but their defense is a bit lacking.
The Bobcats are decent at stopping the run as they are giving up an average of 128 rushing yards a game to the opposition. However, when it comes to defending the pass, Texas State is not good. The Bobcats are ranked next to last in the Sun Belt (and 125th in the nation) in pass defense so far this season. Texas State is giving up an average of 304 passing yards per game.
Note: Statistically, Texas State’s pass defense is better than Nevada’s as the Wolf Pack are giving up an average of 342 passing yards per game while the Bobcats give up 304. Still Texas State’s pass defense is terrible.
Nevada’s offense will need to create plays to exploit the Texas State pass defense for yards and points. The Wolf Pack offense has been able to get big, chunk plays through the air on long pass plays. Nevada will need to continue to do that and also get better at the short and intermediate passing game as well.
This game needs to be the game where the Wolf Pack need to get tight end Keleki Latu involved. Latu is a big target checking in at 6 foot 7 and 230lbs. So far this season Latu only has four receptions and he is the type of player that you find a way to get the ball to. It is key that the Wolf Pack offense get him the ball early and often.
If QB Brendon Lewis and the Wolf Pack offense can successfully attack the Bobcat pass defense, then Nevada has a good chance of winning on the road this Saturday.
Prediction
Nevada 35 Texas State 31
Even though they lost their 13th game in a row to Kansas last week, there was a whole lot of fight and improved play from Nevada.
The Wolf Pack keep that same energy if they want to win on Saturday. Along with figuring out how to improve their pass defense against another explosive pass offense in Texas State.
The Bobcats can put up points but they also give up a bunch of yards through the air. This is the game where Brendon Lewis needs to find his receivers like Dalevon Campbell and Sean Dollars.
This game will be a shootout but I think Nevada can mustard up the effort and a few stops on defense to win on the road and end their long losing streak.