Ross Chastain’s outlook for the Round of 12 during 2023 NASCAR season

Evaluating Ross Chastain chances of advancing out of the Round of 12 as he pursues his first NASCAR Cup Series championship.

[autotag]Ross Chastain[/autotag] did not have a great start to the 2023 NASCAR playoffs with only one top-10 finish in the Round of 16; however, it was enough for Chastain to advance to the Round of 12. The driver of the No. 1 car finished in fifth place at Darlington Raceway, 13th place at Kansas Speedway, and 23rd place at Bristol Motor Speedway.

It was a rough end to the regular season for Chastain as he only has two top-10 finishes in the last 12 races since his win at Nashville Superspeedway. So, how does the Round of 12 stack up for Chastain as he tries to capture his first NASCAR Cup Series title? Let’s take a look at what tracks are coming up over the next three races.

Chastain will take his three-point deficit to the playoff cut-line and head to Texas Motor Speedway, which only has one date on the calendar. Last year, the Trackhouse Racing driver had a 13th-place finish but did see success in the first two stages of the event with 15 points. That should be looked at more closely than his finishing position; therefore, Chastain should be solid at Texas.

Moving onto the most unpredictable track of the Round of 12, Talladega Superspeedway represents a very good place for Chastain. It was the site of his second career Cup Series victory and he has two top-5 finishes in the last three races. Everything is unpredictable at Talladega but it has historically been a track that Chastain has run well at overall.

Finally, the Charlotte ROVAL is a track with not a lot of true data for Chastain. The driver of the No. 1 car won Stage 2 in 2022 but ended up finishing in 37th place after damage to his car. Most recently, Chastain hasn’t had a top-15 finish in the last three road course events. The Charlotte ROVAL is probably the most concerning track for Chastain overall.

The fate of Talladega will likely determine Chastain’s chances of advancing to the Round of 12. The three-point deficit should be overcome in Texas barring any issues but Chastain needs a buffer going into the Charlotte ROVAL. The performances on road courses haven’t been as strong during the 2023 NASCAR season and a must-win situation at the ROVAL would be dire.

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