NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 1

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Throughout the NFL season, bettors are able to take fantasy football hunches and make them pay off in the form of player prop bets.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 1 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

For Week 1, we select 3 of the biggest stars in the league doing what they do best, a rookie who will likely struggle in his debut and one of the league’s best touchdown scorers getting a solid rate of return to hit the end zone again.

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NFL Week 1 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:14 a.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts OVER 240.5 passing yards (-115)

– At Patriots, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

There is no questioning that Bill Belichick is one of the greatest defensive minds in the history of the NFL, but he has a 25-26 record since the departure of Tom Brady. That’s just below a .500 record against every team and he doesn’t have to face a stacked offense like Philadelphia’s in most of them.

There is a lot of buzz around Hurts as a favorite to win the MVP award this season. With a slew of receiving weapons, including A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert, it will only take a couple of big splash plays and good ball distribution to surpass this number.

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Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson UNDER 192.5 passing yards (-115)

– Host Jaguars, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Richardson is a member of the Class of 2023 1st-round quarterbacks all making their debuts Sunday. There is a sentiment that without RB Jonathan Taylor, who will miss at least the first 4 games on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list, Richardson will be passing more. He may throw more passes, but it might lead to less success.

Typically when a team faces the Colts, Taylor is the first player the defense has to concern itself with. Without the threat of Taylor, the Jags defense can focus on bringing pressure on Richardson and forcing a lot of short passes.

Richardson may have to complete 20 or more passes to get over this number and that may be asking too much in an NFL debut.

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New Orleans Saints RB Jamaal Williams SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+150)

– Host Titans, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Williams has always been a strong rusher near the goal line, but he took it to new heights last year with Detroit — scoring 17 touchdowns on the ground and most of them from inside the 5-yard line.

The Saints have always had a designated goal-line runner, whether it was RB Mark Ingram or QB Taysom Hill, but they signed Williams in free agency to be the mauling running back that finishes drives in close.

With RB Alvin Kamara serving a 3-game suspension, Williams is going to see the ball a lot and will likely get at least 1 or 2 cracks at hitting the goal line from in close.

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Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 88.5 receiving yards (-115)

– Host Buccaneers, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Jefferson was on pace to set a new single-season receiving yardage record last season before having a couple of low-production games to close out the regular season — finishing with 1,809 yards.

It’s never easy to average 106 yards, but it was because he was targeted as much as any player in the league. But it’s easier when you average 7.5 catches a game.

When the Vikings released 4-time Pro Bowl RB Dalvin Cook, it sent a message that the run-first Vikings of the past decade-plus were officially dead. QB Kirk Cousins could be among the league leaders in passing attempts and yards.

Although he has other targets in TE T.J. Hockenson, WR K.J. Osborn and rookie WR Jordan Addison, Jefferson is Cousins’ primary target and will get his share of opportunities to put up big numbers.

Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill OVER 80.5 receiving yards (-115)

– At Chargers, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Hill is one of the more enjoyable players to bet the Over on because he is so explosive that he may only need 3 or 4 receptions to hit this number.

The Chargers and Dolphins have proved that offenses can succeed by virtually ignoring the run. The Dolphins had the 4th-ranked pass offense last season, led by 1,710 yards from Hill. The Chargers had the 3rd-rated pass offense.

Both teams are going to be looking to take downfield chances, and airing the ball out and Hill’s experience playing against the Chargers while in the same division will pay dividends.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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