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The 2023 NFL season kicks off Thursday with the 1st of 16 games for the opening week. It will begin a year of surprises and upsets each week.
In 2022, underdogs won 34.3% of the games outright but were not a profitable bet overall as the underdogs on moneyline bets had a net -8.8% ROI (return on investment). However, spread bets on the underdog last season had an ROI of +6.4%.
Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 1 underdog bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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NFL underdog predictions: Week 1
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:35 a.m. ET.
LIONS +4.5 (-110) at Chiefs — Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
The Lions were involved in 8 games in the regular season a year ago that were decided by 4 or fewer points.
They are the favorite in the NFC North this season and face a Chiefs team, who despite being at home as the defending Super Bowl champions, will be without All-Pro DL Chris Jones, who is holding out in a contract dispute.
TE Travis Kelce, the Chiefs’ best pass catcher, is questionable with a bone bruise in his knee. While he probably plays, he won’t be 100%. I’m not quite confident enough in the +180 moneyline bet on the Lions, but they should at least keep this close down to the wire.
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CARDINALS +7 (-110) at Commanders — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
While the Cardinals are expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Commanders are projected to have the worst-scoring offense in the league.
The Cardinals starting defense, albeit in a handful of series in the preseason, did not allow any points. Their offense, with QB Josh Dobbs under center to start the year in place of an injured QB Kyler Murray, will likely be anemic but focused on ball control and running the football.
It will only be the 2nd NFL start for Commanders QB Sam Howell. Plus, they could be without WR Terry McLaurin, their best offensive player who has turf toe and is day to day, and DE Chase Young, their best pass rusher who has a neck injury.
This game has all the makings of a 17-13 or 16-10 stinker all over it.
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Bills at JETS (+115) — Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Jets open at home with QB Aaron Rodgers making his debut for Gang Green. In his many years with the Green Bay Packers, he was known for some Week 1 stinkers (23-7 loss to Minnesota Vikings in 2022, 38-3 loss to New Orleans Saints in 2021), but those were always on the road.
New York has an upgraded offense with Rodgers and RB Dalvin Cook and had the No. 4 scoring defense in the league. They beat the Bills at home last season.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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