Interceptions were an issue for Dak Prescott in 2023. Despite missing five games, he managed to tie for the NFL lead in this worrisome category. His 15 picks in 12 games were a career high for Prescott and became the basis of many offseason conversations regarding the Cowboys’ ceiling in 2023.
Mike McCarthy discussed it often, making turnovers a point of emphasis for the Dallas offense. After dispatching Kellen Moore to different, possibly greener pastures, McCarthy took a more hands-on approach to the design of the Cowboys’ offense.
Calling it “Texas Coast” he merged his old west coast offensive principles with the longstanding Air Coryell system to put Prescott and his offense in position to succeed. Simplifying route options and becoming more timing-based was a logical way to eliminate potentially harmful variables such as WR error.
No one will argue turnovers play an important part in determining winners and losers in the NFL. In a study focusing on defensive instability, Josh Hermsmeyer at FiveThirtyEight discussed the enormous role turnovers play each week.
Turnovers often make the difference in an NFL game. How much? Enough to close most point spreads pic.twitter.com/jgihZ7xH1D
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) September 5, 2023
Overall, teams with a positive turnover differential win 78 percent of the time.
Down and distance, timing, and field position matter, but generally speaking an interception is estimated to be worth -4.34 in expected points added (EPA), serving as one of the most impactful plays of an NFL game.
Does this mean the Cowboys should shift to a more conservative gameplan?
That’s the question we ask today. They won four games with Cooper Rush at the helm, and he provided next to no value as a passer (measured in EPA/dropback and CPOE). It’s a preposterous statement to make but if limiting interceptions is the top goal of some, the impact may be worth exploring.