On the eve of the 2023 season getting into full swing, [autotag]Jayden Daniels[/autotag] has seen his Heisman odds surge.
He now has the second-best odds according to both BetMGM and FanDuel, behind only USC quarterback Caleb Williams, who won the award last year.
Given how productive Daniels was with his legs last fall, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the mix if he turns in a more productive passing season while leading a possible College Football Playoff contender.
However, not everyone thinks Daniels will be on the stage in New York with a chance to receive the sport’s most prestigious individual award. On3’s Jesse Simonton broke down the 2023 narratives he isn’t buying, and Daniels’ Heisman candidacy was one of them.
I understand the LSU hype. I love Harold Perkins Jr. as much as as the next CFB junkie. I agree with everyone’s take that the NCAA is a bunch of hypocritical buffoons for suspending Maason Smith.
But should quarterback Jayden Daniels really have the second-best preseason odds to win the Heisman Trophy in 2023? Behind only Caleb Williams, who is aiming to become just the second two-time winner ever?
Daniels will certainly have plenty of opportunities to make his case as perhaps the best dual-threat quarterback in the country this fall, but he’ll need a monster spike in production to even get to New York — much less win the award.
Last season, Daniels threw for less than 3,000 yards. He had 17 passing touchdowns and averaged fewer than 27 attempts per game. He did lead the nation in scramble yards and finished the season with 885 overall rushing yards and 11 scores. Still, his overall numbers were dwarfed by a bunch of guys last season — most all of whom are Heisman contenders in 2023, too.
To take home the trophy, Daniels probably needs to have 1.5X the production as a passer, a slight uptick as a runner (say 1,000 yards) + guide LSU back to the SEC Championship. Since the College Football Playoff’s inception in 2016, Lamar Jackson is the only winner to not make the field in his Heisman season.
So Daniels isn’t facing an impossible parlay, but it seems like a lot for someone who has the current second-best odds on the entire market.
Simonton makes valid points about Daniels’ production in the passing game, and it would likely take a step forward for him to be in the mix here. However, there’s reason to think he could given the progress he made last fall and the fact that his favorite passing game target is back in [autotag]Malik Nabers[/autotag].
LSU fans will hope Daniels exceeds Simonton’s expectations and indeed finds himself in contention to win the Heisman.
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