Brian Burns projected to finish with 7th-most sacks in 2023

Outside linebacker Brian Burns still may not have the numbers he wants to see from the Carolina Panthers. But he probably won’t mind seeing the ones from the ESPN analytics crew.

Using a statistical model that factors in anything from sack totals and rates to how often an opposing quarterback on the upcoming schedule gets sacked, Seth Walder recently forecasted the top 50 sack getters of the 2023 season. (For more on the detailed method, click here.)

In at No. 7, with a projected total of 9.6 sacks, is the two-time Pro Bowler Burns. Walder writes:

Burns finally hit double-digit sacks after approaching that threshold in the previous two seasons. At age 25, he’s in his prime and should be productive over a large number of pass rushes going forward. There are two major factors that limit his upside, however:

1. He’s on a worse team than every player above him; the Panthers’ projected win total is just 7.5. That reduces the expected number of situations in which desperate opponents will be forced to pass, which creates sack opportunities.
2. After ranking fourth in pass rush win rate (25%) at edge in 2020, Burns hasn’t been on the same level since, finishing 13th (20%) in 2021 and 17th (17%) last season. That’s good but not great.

Burns finished with 12.5 sacks in 2022, which was good (not great) enough for eighth alongside Arizona’s J.J. Watt and Las Vegas’ Maxx Crosby. He also, per Pro Football Focus, recorded 68 pressures—tying with Josh Allen (Jacksonville’s) and former teammate Haason Reddick for the 10th-most.

So, will a change of position in the middle of Carolina’s change on defense translate to even better ranks? Well, ESPN’s model may not concur, but numbers (on the field and on contracts) are meant to rewritten.

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