When the 2022 season concluded, Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy didn’t hide the fact he hated the number of turnovers the offense committed throughout the campaign. For as deadly as the Cowboys offense was to opponents, it’s propensity to throw interceptions made it slightly dangerous to its own well-being as well.
Under Dak Prescott, the Dallas passing offense was robust, ranking in the top-10 in EPA/play (0.154) and in the top-5 in success rate (52.5%). Unfortunately, they also led the NFL in interceptions with Prescott at the helm, enduring 15 self-inflicted wounds in just 12 games.
The exact value of an interception obviously depends on the timing and circumstance of the specific play, but generally speaking, an interception is estimated to be worth -4.34 in EPA. This enormous figure explains why teams with a positive turnover differential win 78 percent of their games.
It’s an issue McCarthy set out to change in 2023 and an influential factor in the identity of the offense going forward.