With a new offensive coordinator leading the way in Kellen Moore and the Chargers projected to be better on paper than they were last season, Justin Herbert’s MVP odds are worth evaluating. Herbert will be looking to prevent a potential repeat win by Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes in 2023.
Currently, over on FanDuel Sportsbook, Herbert is fourth in line at +900 to win MVP. Three quarterbacks are tied in odds ahead of him: Mahomes, Bills’ Josh Allen, and Bengals’ Joe Burrow are all at +700 as we approach the season. Just behind Herbert is Eagles’ Jalen Hurts and Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson at +1200 and +1500, respectively.
FanDuel AP NFL Regular Season MVP 2023-24 odds:
- Josh Allen +700
- Joe Burrow +700
- Patrick Mahomes +700
- Justin Herbert +900
- Jalen Hurts +1200
- Lamar Jackson +1500
- Trevor Lawrence +1600
- Aaron Rodgers +1600
- Tua Tagovailoa +1600
- Dak Prescott +1600
The top 10 players in terms of odds aren’t too surprising. Given that MVP consideration is largely a single-season “best quarterback” award now, this group is all of the signal callers primed for regular-season success. Outside of Jets’ Aaron Rodgers, who switched teams in the offseason, each quarterback on the list will be looking to take their respective teams back to the playoffs in 2023.
The price for Herbert seems just about right. He’s one of those top-five quarterbacks that can always be in contention for the award. New weapons and the addition of Kellen Moore can make a potential Herbert bet sound appealing.
From a statistics standpoint, it’s probably safe to say Herbert will bounce back with a 4800+ yard season with 35+ touchdowns in 2023. Considering the offensive changes, there’s no doubt in my mind that the former Oregon quarterback can produce the stat line to potentially win the award.
But there’s one rather large problem with Herbert’s candidacy. That would be the Kansas City Chiefs and the aforementioned Mahomes. As long as Mahomes continues to put up 5000-yard seasons while winning the division, a Herbert bet is rather tough to make convincingly.
The recent history of the NFL MVP award demonstrates that they tend not to give it runner-ups in a division as well. The last MVP player whose team did not finish first in the division was Adrian Peterson in 2012. For quarterbacks, Peyton Manning was the most recent winner of the award that didn’t win his division in 2008.
More important than any potential statistical edge over the field for Herbert in 2023 is ultimately team success. If Herbert is able to split the season series with Mahomes and the Chargers finish on top in the AFC West for the first time since 2009, he could very well be the favorite to win the award. But with the fourth-best odds, I’m not sure there’s enough value in the price to make the bet with a rather glaring obstacle in his way.