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With 2 weeks to go until The Open Championship, players are getting in their last tune-ups before Royal Liverpool. The PGA Tour is in Silvis, Ill., for the 2023 John Deere Classic this week, which is once again hosted by TPC Deere Run.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 John Deere Classic odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
In the field this week are Cameron Young, Denny McCarthy and Russell Henley, who are all among the favorites to win. Defending champion J.T. Poston will also tee it up in Illinois, seeking to win this event for the 2nd straight year.
TPC Deere Run is 7,289 yards and will play as a par 71 this week, featuring a lot of elevation changes throughout the course. Deere Run typically yields some low scores, with Poston winning at 21-under par last year.
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John Deere Classic – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 9:50 a.m. ET.
Ludvig Aberg (+500)
Aberg was on his way to a top-10 and potentially a win last week before his game went wayward on the weekend, shooting 73 and 72 after rounds of 65 and 67 on Thursday and Friday. He’s making his tournament debut, but he’s on the verge of breaking through already as a pro.
Russell Henley (+300)
Henley finished 11th and 2nd in his last 2 starts here and hasn’t finished worse than T-19 in his last 4 starts this season. In a weaker field, his odds are obviously shorter than usual, but I’m willing to take the bait.
John Deere Classic – Top-10 picks
Emiliano Grillo (+240)
Grillo finished 2nd here last year and is coming off a T-15 at the Travelers Championship 2 weeks ago. I like the way his game is trending, especially coming to a course where he had success a year ago.
Eric Cole (+275)
Cole has 3 top-25 finishes in his last 4 starts, including a top-10. He missed the cut here in his debut in 2021, but he’s playing some great golf now and should find himself in contention down the stretch.
Adam Schenk (+240)
Schenk impressively has finished in the top 10 in 3 of his last 5 starts. His track record at the John Deere Classic is strong, too, finishing 4th in 2021 and 6th in 2020; he withdrew in 2022.
John Deere Classic – Top-20 picks
Seamus Power (+160)
Power has fared well here in the past, posting 3 top-25 finishes in his last 4 starts, including an 8th-place finish in 2021. He hasn’t finished better than 41st in his last 4 starts overall, but this might be the week he turns it around.
Doug Ghim (+188)
Ghim has really impressed in the last 2 months, finishing no worse than 33rd in his last 5 starts. He finished 18th in this event in 2021, so he’s played well here in the past, which is another reason to bet him for a top 20.
John Deere Classic – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Russell Henley (-110) vs. Denny McCarthy (-110)
McCarthy is one of the best putters on tour, but Henley’s ball striking is better and that’s what should help more this week at TPC Deere Run. Henley’s 2 top-11 finishes in his last 2 starts here also give me confidence in him over McCarthy.
Eric Cole (-110) vs. Alex Smalley (-110)
With Cole, I’m banking on recent form over course history against Smalley, who finished 16th last year at the John Deere Classic.
John Deere Classic – Top Brit and Irish
Seamus Power (+130)
Callum Tarren (+225) is the only other player in this bet with somewhat close odds to Power, with Martin Laird being 3rd at +600. Power has 3 top-25s in his last 4 starts here so that’s what we’re basing this on.
John Deere Classic – First-round leader
Ludvig Aberg (+4000)
Aberg was 1 shot off the lead after Round 1 of the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, firing an opening-round 65 on Thursday. He faded on the weekend but he has an all-around game to go low when things are clicking.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group B winner: Emiliano Grillo (+333)
Grillo is tied with Adam Hadwin (+333) as the group favorite, followed by Chris Kirk and Taylor Moore at +350 and Keith Mitchell at +400. Grillo was the runner-up here last year and finished T-15 in his last start at the Travelers Championship 2 weeks ago.
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