The World Cup break isn’t quite here yet, but for this NWSL season, it feels like we’ve hit an inflection point.
The 13th round of matches is clearly past the halfway point in a 22-game season, but it does serve as a sort of act break for the drama that is this league. With players leaving for the World Cup, it’s a moment to take stock on where teams are, and what the stretch run might start to look like.
In short, we really have two groups: a top seven who should be in the battle for six playoff spots through the end of the season, and a bottom five whose hopes are already surprisingly dim.
That might seem harsh on Racing Louisville, just three points out of that top seven, but consider this: the San Diego Wave hold the final playoff spot, and their current points-per-game (PPG) pace has them on course for a 34-point total.
Louisville would need 19 points from their final nine games to match that total, which is 2.11 PPG. A hypothetical team on 2.11 PPG through 13 games this season would have 27 points and be two points clear of the Portland Thorns, who have been outstanding this season.
Barring a collapse from the playoff contenders (none of whom look like they have a lengthy losing run on their bingo card), the teams on the outside have already hit their It’s Go Time moment.