For his first three seasons as Dallas Cowboys head coach, Mike McCarthy ceded play-calling duties to Kellen Moore. The carry-over OC was regarded as one of the top minds in the league and consistently had the Cowboys ranked in the NFL’s top tier in nearly all offensive metrics.
But when the 2022 season came to a close, McCarthy decided he needed to take control of things. With the big picture in mind, McCarthy bid his coordinator farewell and offered up one of the most infamous quotes of the offseason, pledging to help his stout defense.
“I’ve been where Kellen has been, McCarthy said. “Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up but I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense. Think when you’re a coordinator, you know but you’re in charge of the offense. Being a head coach and being a play-caller, you’re a little more in tune.”
A funny thing happened on the way to the postseason last year. After losing quarterback Dak Prescott to injury in Week 1, the Cowboys inexplicably won football games. What seemed like a guaranteed death sentence at the time, turned out a non-factor when all was said and done. To the surprise of many, the Cowboys went 4-1 with Prescott out.
Was Prescott’s replacement, Cooper Rush, a diamond in the rough? Did Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore rise above by building brilliant game plans? Or did Dan Quinn and the defense carry the load?
Looking at the numbers, it’s clear neither Rush nor the offense was the answer. During that time, Rush’s success rate was 21st at 43.5%, his EPA/P (expected points added per play) was 14th at 0.047, and his CPOE (completion percentage over expected) was 29th at -7.1.
Between Weeks 2 through Week 6, the Cowboys offense produced a negative EPA (-0.008/p) with a success rate of just 42.4 percent.
Quinn’s defensive unit was top-five in EPA/p and success rate. They provided impact play after impact play and proved to be the true difference between 2022 and the previous times Dallas had lost their QB1.
When Prescott returned, it was the best of both worlds. The offense posted huge numbers (despite being severely thin at WR) and the defense bucked all odds by once again leading the NFL in turnovers.
But despite the individual unit success, the result was the same – the Cowboys stumbled down the stretch and in the playoffs.
McCarthy seemingly looked at his battered and bruised defense and determined if he wanted to get over the hump as a team, he needed to change the priorities of the offense.