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The NFL MVP award has become a very quarterback-centric honor. Of the 23 MVP awards given out since 2000, 19 have gone to quarterbacks including each of the last 10. Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012 was the last non-QB to be named the NFL’s most valuable player. There’s a real chance 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey breaks that streak.
A couple of things are required to set the table for San Francisco’s RB. First, the team has to be good. They’re heavily favored to win the NFC West, and if they can do that while securing a top two or three seed they should have the requisite team success to have a player in MVP consideration. For a running back specifically though, the 49ers would likely need to snag the NFC’s No. 1 seed and do so through a dominant offensive showing.
Second, a 49ers quarterback can’t be a breakout superstar. If they’re that good and one of their QBs is lighting it up with 4,500 passing yards and 30-plus touchdowns, then that player would likely jump to the top of the list given the recent history of how voting for the MVP goes.
If any RB is going to find their way into the conversation in the modern NFL though, it’s a unique dual-threat player like McCaffrey paired with a forward-thinking offensive head coach like Kyle Shanahan.
Consider what McCaffrey accomplished in 11 regular season games for the 49ers. He rushed 159 times for 746 yards and six touchdowns, and caught 52 of his 65 targets for 464 yards and four touchdowns. He did all of that while receiving a crash course in the 49ers’ offense after arriving via mid-season trade.
Here are what his numbers from last season look like over a 17-game sample:
246 carries, 1,152 rushing yards, 100 targets, 80 receptions, 717 receiving yards, 15 total TDs.
Simply reaching those numbers isn’t going to be enough to get McCaffrey some MVP consideration. They’re very good, but the numbers will need to be astronomical for a running back to climb over the laundry list of QBs who are favored to win the award.
Consider McCaffrey’s 2019 campaign where he rushed for 1,387 yards and racked up 1,005 receiving yards while leading the league with 19 total touchdowns. That year he received zero MVP votes while Ravens QB Lamar Jackson won it unanimously.
A big problem, aside from Jackson’s electric performance, was that McCaffrey dominated on bad Panthers team that finished 5-11.
At minimum to get MVP consideration in 2023 he’ll need a statistical output at or north of his 2019 season where he goes for 1,000 yards rushing and receiving while posting 20-plus total TDs for a very good team in the NFC.
Because MVPs can be so narrative-based, McCaffrey doing that on an offense that produces despite significant question marks under center would provide him a shine that no other RB has gotten the benefit of in the current MVP voting climate.
He’s a long shot to win it, but the building blocks are there. If the NFL MVP award is going to be given out to a non-quarterback any time in the near future, McCaffrey has a very good chance in 2023 to be that player.
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