Bills bet on Ed Oliver’s potential with four-year contract extension

The Bills gave Ed Oliver a massive contract extension, betting on his potential and rewarding his production — to a point.

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The Buffalo Bills have agreed to terms on a new contract extension with defensive lineman Ed Oliver that both speaks to his improvement as a player over the last two seasons and catapults him into the future with head coach Sean McDermott running the defense.

Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Oliver will receive a four-year, $68 million extension with $45 million guaranteed. That puts him among the 10 highest-paid interior defensive linemen, which may seem a bit rich. But if you include the $10.753 million guaranteed he’s due for his fifth-year option in 2023, the numbers become more reasonable.

Selected with the ninth overall pick in the 2019 draft out of Houston, Oliver was thought to be the next great NFL defensive lineman based on his college tape. He hasn’t reached those heights, though he showed progress in 2021 and 2022. Last season, per Pro Football Focus, he totaled five sacks, 13 quarterback hits and 19 quarterback hurries, as well as 22 stops. This after a 2021 season in which he put up six sacks, 12 quarterback hits and 30 quarterback hurries.

One thing that could bump up Oliver’s numbers in 2023 and beyond, besides a healthy Von Miller, is McDermott throwing more blitzes at opposing offenses — something that wasn’t done much under former defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Bills blitzed on just 18% of their defensive snaps in the regular season, which ranked 27th in the league. The blitz rate bumped up a bit to 21% in the postseason, but McDermott’s defensive history augurs a more aggressive approach.