To secure their fifth consecutive super regional appearance and maintain pursuit of a 12th College World Series berth, the Razorbacks must endure a double-elimination tournament featuring TCU, Arizona, and Santa Clara.
Upon initial observation, one might perceive this as a negative remark toward the Razorbacks. However, it is simply a result of challenging matchups against teams that possess a higher caliber than their record, which is what RPI suggests.
Auburn athletic director and chairman of the selection committee, John Cohen, recognizes flaws in college baseball’s RPI metric. He calls for changes to increase accuracy.
“There needs to be some statistical experts to come in and help us recreate this thing,” Cohen said on ESPN2’s selection show. “The thing about baseball is it’s a geographical sport, so there’s advantages to warmer weather, we know that in the South, Southeast and out West. I would love to see it changed.”
Fleming described his model as a “simple opponent-adjusted pitching and hitting model, with recency weighting,” the Fayetteville Regional is the toughest for the 16 hosts, based on the average rating of the other three schools.
According to Fleming’s model, the Razorbacks are still the favorite to advance but have just a 36.8% chance to do so, which is the second-lowest among hosts. TCU follows them at 25.6% and Arizona at 24.8%. Even Santa Clara has a 12.8% chance to win the regional — the highest chance of any four seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Probability of Making the CWS, 10000 Sims
Wake Forest 44.7%
Vanderbilt 35.6%
Florida 35.1%
LSU 32.3%
Virginia 30.4%
Kentucky 30.0%
South Carolina 29.5%
Tennessee 28.9%
Alabama 26.9%
Miami 26.8%
Stanford 25.0%
Clemson 24.1%
Coastal 22.9%
Duke 22.5%
Arkansas 22.2%
Auburn 19.0%— parker, made it up because I hate your team (@statsowar) May 29, 2023