With 2 weeks to go until the U.S. Open, the PGA Tour is in Ohio for the 2023 Memorial Tournament, hosted by Jack Nicklaus at Muirfield Village. The 1st round begins Thursday morning with many of the top players in the world taking on Jack’s place.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Memorial Tournament odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Jon Rahm is in the field this week and comes in as the No. 1 player in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Scottie Scheffler isn’t 2nd, however, despite being the favorite to win. The No. 2 spot goes to Xander Schauffele, followed by Scheffler at No. 3, Patrick Cantlay at No. 4 and Tony Finau rounding out the top 5. The defending champion, Billy Horschel, is ranked No. 104 this week.
Muirfield Village is a par 72 and will play at 7,533 yards this week. It was designed by Nicklaus, featuring heavy rough and difficult greenside bunkers that protect the putting surfaces on approach shots.
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Memorial Tournament – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:15 p.m. ET.
Jason Day (+450)
Day calls Muirfield home, even if he doesn’t play there very often. It’s a course he knows well and the familiarity should help get him back on track after a rough week at the PGA Championship, which followed his 1st win of the season. He finished 31st here last year and 4th in 2020.
Jon Rahm (+150)
It’s hard to stomach betting any golfer to finish top 5 at +150, but Rahm is worth it. He won in 2020 and had a 54-hole lead in 2021 before being forced to withdraw due to COVID-19. Last year, he finished 10th at the Memorial, his 3rd straight top-10 here – even if the 2nd one was unofficial.
Xander Schauffele (+275)
Schauffele is due for a win this year after notching 8 top-10s already. He has 4 straight top-20 finishes at this event, so he’s played well here in the past. It’s just a matter of him breaking through for a victory at Muirfield Village. He has 5 top-5 finishes this season.
Memorial Tournament – Top-10 picks
Patrick Cantlay (-120)
Cantlay has 4 top-5 finishes in the last 5 years here. Yes, you read that right. He could be poised for another this year, potentially even going on to win it for the 3rd time in a span of 5 years. At -120, his odds might seem a bit rich but he’s playing really well right now and has the best track record of anyone at this event.
Rory McIlroy (+115)
It’s not often you get McIlroy at +115 for a top-10 but given the strong field and his so-so recent form, we get him at a good price. He has 2 top-10s and 4 top-20s here since 2016, often playing well at this Nicklaus-designed course. He has 4 top-10s in 9 starts this season.
Sahith Theegala (+375)
In 19 starts this season, Theegala already has 7 top-10 finishes and though he’s only played this event twice, he’s finished 32nd and 5th. Muirfield seems to suit his game well and I think he’ll have another solid week this time around, too.
Memorial Tournament – Top-20 picks
Rickie Fowler (+125)
Fowler has finished in the top 20 in most of his starts this season, going 11-for-16 with 5 top-10s, as well. Since 2017, he has 4 top-20s at this event, including 2 top-10s and a 2nd-place finish in 2017. Fowler + Muirfield + top-20 = a great recipe.
Tom Kim (+170)
Kim is making his debut in this tournament, but his game travels well, regardless of the type of course. Yes, Muirfield is a little long, but his iron play is strong and he already has 8 top-25s on the year thus far.
Shane Lowry (+170)
Lowry is 50th in total strokes gained and 19th in approach, so he’s been hitting the ball well this season despite only finishing in the top 10 once. In the last 2 years here, he tied for 6th and 32nd.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Justin Suh (+400)
- Keith Mitchell (+300)
Memorial Tournament – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Rickie Fowler (-125) vs. Matt Fitzpatrick (+100)
Fowler’s track record here was already mentioned, as well as his impressive play this season. Fitzpatrick has been up and down this year and missed the cut here in each of the last 2 years. Give me Fowler, a horse for this course.
Adam Scott (-110) vs. Keegan Bradley (-110)
Scott hasn’t missed the cut here in his last 5 starts and has finished in the top 20 twice, with one of those being a runner-up finish in 2019. Bradley hasn’t been great in this event recently, missing the cut in 2017, 2019 and 2021.
Corey Conners (-105) vs. Cameron Young (-120)
I like Conners’ iron game over Young’s length at Muirfield because this isn’t necessarily a course that bombers can take advantage of. Young did go low with a 67 in the opening round last year, but he also shot 84 on Sunday.
Memorial Tournament – Top Canadian
Corey Conners (+150)
Conners has finished in the top 12 in each of his last 2 starts, including the PGA Championship where he fell out of contention with a 75 on Sunday. There are only 4 other Canadians in the field and Adam Hadwin is the 2nd favorite at +300.
Memorial Tournament – Top Irish
Shane Lowry (+225)
McIlroy is obviously the favorite at -150, and even though I like his chances this week, I’m taking the value with Lowry at +225 with only 3 Irishmen in the field; Seamus Power is the other. All Lowry has to do is beat 2 players to cash this ticket.
Memorial Tournament – First-round leader
Sahith Theegala (+5000)
Theegala shot 68 in the opening round here last year, which was tied for the 2nd-lowest score on Thursday. He wound up finishing 5th in just his 2nd appearance at this event.
Collin Morikawa (+3300)
Morikawa was the 1st-round leader last year when he shot 66, the best round of the opening round by 1. With so much emphasis on iron play this week, he could go low in Round 1 if the putter cooperates.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group C winner: Rickie Fowler (+350)
Let’s go back to Fowler here. His group consists of Sungjae Im (+280), who has missed 2 straight cuts, Cameron Young (+375), Hideki Matsuyama (+375) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+400). Fowler has been so consistent this season and has also played well at Muirfield in the past.
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