The Cowboys find themselves in the middle of a philosophical shift in the NFL game. For roughly two decades, 11 personnel (3WR packages) has opened up offenses and spread out defenses. It has created mismatches and provided big plays downfield.
As defenses learned to adapt to the pass-heavy nature of modern offenses, nickel defense (5DBs/2LBs) took the place of base defense (4DBs/3LBs). But as Newton’s third law demands, “for every action in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction.” Friends, here comes the reaction.
With defenses focused on stopping the pass, run defenses have effectively atrophied. Luckily for them, so have most rushing offenses. Most offenses are focused on keeping up with top passing attacks like the Chiefs, Bills, and yes, even the Cowboys.
Do the @dallascowboys have the best offense in the NFL? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/V6o63DL30I
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) May 9, 2023
It’s created a pass-happy league where both sides of the ball are neglecting the run.
Opportunistic offenses like the Eagles and 49ers have already taken notice of defenses. They have no qualms about grinding it out on the ground if defenses are willing to give up the easy yards.
In 2022, offenses were expected the gain the most rushing yards going back to 2014 after accounting for situation and OL play. Could be an effect of lighter boxes and more split-safety looks that have been more prominent in NFL defenses in recent years pic.twitter.com/Lcb64SOqic
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) April 9, 2023
By all accounts, passing is still king in the NFL. In the 2022 season, only eight teams had a more efficient running game (EPA) than passing game and those teams were largely comprised of bottom-tier passing attacks.
Contenders pass the ball. But the smart ones found a way to run the ball, too.
Nickel personnel combined with a light box count make for easy running. The gains on the ground may not be as good as they are through the air but if the yards are gift-wrapped, why not take them?
The 49ers show a heavy dose of motion (statistically beneficial to the running game) and play-action (statistically beneficial to the passing game) to feast in both phases of the game. The Eagles and a handful of others have followed suit and it’s hard to argue with the results.
This, by no means, indicates the Cowboys should run more often than they pass. Nor does it mean run-run-pass is an intelligent formula for success (pass-run-run is actually the most successful play sequence).
It just means, given the climate of the league, Dallas is wise to hone their ability to run the ball.
If they can run with the efficiency of the 49ers, Eagles and Ravens, they would be fools not to run more in 2023.
“Like anything you have an identity you play to,” Mike McCarthy said during the 2022 season. “I think our complementary formula is pretty crystal clear how we want to play. But with that is the way the defense plays does create potential opportunities for you to take advantage of it.”
McCarthy is a disciple of the West Coast Offense; he’s not going to suddenly become ground and pound for the first time in his career just because trends have changed. But he does seem to understand the complementary nature the running game plays on offense and how a strong running game benefits the passing game and the defense.
And that wins games.
[affiliatewidget_smgtolocal]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]