The NBA held its annual draft lottery on Tuesday night. It’s a rite of passage so firmly entrenched that the phrase “draft lottery” no longer raises an eyebrow.
The NHL also adopted a draft lottery, as has the WNBA and several other non-major sports. The weighted system discourages “tanking,” which is deliberately losing to get the worst record to guarantee getting the top pick.
The NFL has never followed suit. And even though the NBA draft lottery is a prime-time event that draws interest and ratings —two things the NFL almost never shies away from —there is little momentum for the draft lottery system to infiltrate football.
There are any number of reasons or excuses why the draft lottery system hasn’t hit the NFL. Among them (in no particular order):
- Lesser impact of one individual player on a 53-man roster than in other sports.
- The shorter schedule makes tanking more difficult to succeed (see: 2022 Houston Texans).
- The variety of different positions needed across different teams greatly exceeds other sports.
- The fairly robust trade market at the top of the draft; the No. 1 overall pick was traded just this year.
Of course, there are also rampant conspiracy theories about the NBA draft lottery dating back to the very first one in 1985. It was a little too convenient that the New York Knicks landed the top pick and the ability to select a transcendent star college player like Patrick Ewing. The same accusations of a fixed lottery have reared up several times, notably for the Cleveland Cavaliers winning the lottery and local superstar high schooler Lebron James.
Even now, with media members observing the process, there are still doubters about the veracity of the NBA lottery system. For a team like the Detroit Pistons, losing the lottery is a devastating blow–one the NFL desperately hopes to avoid.
The Pistons were the NBA’s worst team in 2022-23, going 17-65. The next-worst teams were the Rockets and Spurs, who each went 22-60. Despite being clearly the worst team for a variety of factors, including an injury to 2021 No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham, Detroit won’t pick first. Or second, or even third. The Pistons “lost” the lottery and fell to the No. 5 overall pick.
The NFL, its owners and the broadcast partners simply don’t have the stomach for that. Don’t expect that appetite to change anytime soon.